I think that for the most part the drug cartels would find themselves exterminated -- on the one hand, their source of income disappears and on the other hand the Mexican military will be off the leash when it comes to ensuring stability. The Mexican military isn't noted for its effectiveness, and a lot of those gangs are well armed, but at the end of the day none of them are packing AFVs and artillery so far as I can tell. Add in that people are in the business for money, not for ideology, and I don't see them being very durable when push really comes to shove. Some might survive, and I can definitely see drug lords retreating to ranches and estates to become minor local warlords or marauders, but I don't see much real political/military power on their ledger books by 2000.
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In RedStar, alot of the towns south of Corpus Cristi were all Mexican immigrant. How would a returning US Army trying to secure the area again behave knowing that most of the locals were not American?
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Good question. In the T2K/2300AD timeline the basic answer is they didn't, with Texas ending up a Mexican state while MilGov, CivGov, and New America slugged it out for non-SW USA parts of the country.