Very true though there are some trends that we can observe. If we look at the spread of various sizes invasive species we can figure how far they have traveled over time, where they may establish etc.
The real fun is when is when things trigger cascades and alter the very terrain like what hippo are doing in Columbia after being imported by Pablo Escobar. While diseases might be a risk by the time the project rolls out by and large those factors will have culled and stabilized for the most part. Likewise, the US has a lot and I mean a lot of 'niche space' that needs filling. Remember the US lost pretty much all of its large herbivores, predators and ecosystem engineers during the Pleistocene but kept most of the flora suited for them. If we look at ranges for species like elk, bison and wolves we see greatly diminished ranges meaning lots of room to fill them in. And, while the climate may not be suitable everywhere its close enough a lot of species do fine. We have established parrot colonies in Chicago for example.
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