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Old 06-06-2021, 12:45 PM
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Raellus Raellus is offline
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Default When Opportunity Knocks

How much of a factor was the deployment of East German troops to the Far East, and their subsequent, heavy losses, in the West German decision to attempt a reunification by force in 1996 (v1) timeline? I think it was huge.

On the one hand, the second Sino-Soviet War probably generated a renewed, powerful feeling of fraternal nationalism in West Germany- "those are our countrymen being sent off to die in the USSR's foolish Chinese adventure!" At the same time, with at least two Cat A DDR divisions no longer in any position to resist the Bundeswehr, and the Soviets not in a good position to rapidly reinforce their army in East Germany due to the demands of the war in the East, a once-in-a-generation opportunity for a lightening campaign to reunite the country had just presented itself to the West German gov't and miltiary.

Also, Western intelligence services would most likely recognize the strain that Soviet demands for troops were putting on the Warsaw Pact. The cracks were showing. Romania, always the most recalcitrant of the Warsaw Pact members, refused outright, IIRC.

It's likely that there was growing dissention in the East German ranks as well. As Adm. Lee pointed out, it's possible that a pro-unification faction started to gain traction in the DDR high command. The war in China would have provided them an opportunity to get rid of die-hard pro-Soviet and/or communist officers by sending them East.

To sum up, a golden opportunity was recognized by the West Germans, who were swept up by renewed nationalist sentiment spurred by the war in China. Under the unprecedented circumstances, I don't think it's really that far-fetched that West Germany might take a gamble on a rapid reunification by force. How the rest of NATO didn't suss this out and stridently object is more difficult to understand/accept.

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Last edited by Raellus; 06-06-2021 at 03:21 PM.
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