[Mohoender]

1996
Unlike the previous year, 1996 is marked by a new step in the increase of international tensions that will be determinant for the fate of our world.
The crisis between China and Taiwan goes one step further when the USA switch from their relatively neutral posture to a more aggressive one, sending two carrier groups in the area. This shows not only a symbolic gesture towards the ROC, but a readiness to fight on the part of the U.S. Realising the U.S. Navy CVBG's incredible threat to the PLA Navy, PRC decides to accelerate its military build up. Soon PRC orders the Sovremenny Class Missile Destroyer from Russia, a cold war era warship designed to counter the U.S. Navy’s CVB. Then, in mid-December, during the visit to Moscow by Chinese Premier Li Peng, PRC subsequently orders modern attack submarines (Kilo Class) and warplanes (Su-30MKK2) to counter the U.S. Navy's CVBG while negotiation starts on a treaty to be signed next year. On the other hand, PRC attempts at intimidation through military tests and exercises also lead to the strengthening of military ties between the U.S. and Japan, increasing the role Japan would play in defending Taiwan.
Another important event occurs in Asia when, on September 18, a North Korean Sang-O class submarine runs aground in South Korea. Despite, numerous protestations from Pyongyang and from the international community, the crew are described as spys by South Korea and killed by the South Korean military. This puts an end to recent reconciliations efforts and North Korea applies for membership in Warsaw Pact 2.
Germany’s intervention on behalf of the Sudeten claims shows its impact during the May 1996 elections of the Czech Republic. The Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia gains a majority of the seats, Filip Vojtech forms the new government while Václav Havel is forced to resign in July. In September, the Czech Republic joins Warsaw Pact 2. In Romania, sole eastern country to remain outside of Russia’s influence, the government issues a law banning the Democratic Union of Hungarians in Romania (Romániai Magyar Demokrata Szövetség) from the political scene. Antigovernment demonstrations by Magyars (ethnic Hungarians) take place in several Transylvanian cities and are suppressed by Romanian riot control police, with some loss of life. The Hungarian government protests the mistreatment of these people and, finally, diplomatic relations with Romania are suspended.
Since the fall of Berlusconi’s coalition in Italy, political instability remained the norm all over 1995 and this result in the surprising outcome of the April Elections. The Lega Nord gets almost 25% of the vote, gaining no less than 138 deputies and 67 senators as well as a majority of seats in all northern regions with the exception of Emilia-Romagna. Almost Immediately, Umberto Bossi, leader of the Lega Nord, reveals that his aim is the secession of Northern Italy under the name Padania. This becomes a reality when the two other politcal coalitions (L’Ulivo and Polo delle LibertÃ*) start to break up after summer. Popular demonstrations and riots plague the northern part of Italy from October to November and the secession is effective on November 26. With a large popular support and most of the Italian military siding with it, Padania quickly gains international recognition and an Italian National Conference is to be held in January 1997.
In Northern Ireland, the IRA ceasefire that has been in effect since 1994 comes to an end and several bombings take place. Elsewhere, in the Basque region of Spain, the failure of peace talks between ETA and the government is immediately followed by a new increase in ETA’s activities. That culminates with the assassination of the conservative candidates José MarÃ*a Aznar López right before the election. Elections are cancelled; Felipe González Márquez is confirmed in office by the Congreso de los Diputados while a state of emergency is declared. Failure of negotiations with rebellious movements does also happen outside of Europe, in the Philippines where peace talks with the Moro National Liberation Front come to a brutal end and in Guatemala where negotiation with the Guatemalan National Revolutionary Union is suspended. Russia, however, meets with success in Chechnya but this is gained only after a long bloody offensive lasting from January to May. The only true success comes from the finalization of the Chapultepec Peace Accords that had brought peace to El Salvador back in 1992. By the end of the year, rebel movements in various parts of the world are becoming increasingly active.

In the Middle-East, the Iraqi civil war continues but the Shiite, taking over the regular units of the Iraqi army and getting more support from Iran, asserts their control over Baghdad and over most of the southern half of the country. Consequently, they have their hand on most of the oil and this allows for a fairly important influx in cash. An Islamist Republic is established over Shiite’s controlled territory and Grand Ayatollah Mohammad Mohammad Sadeq al-Sadr becomes the head of state. In the meantime the Kurds and the Sunni minorities, backed by the Iraqi Republican Guard continue the fighting. They are receiving an indirect support from the USA and supplies are coming in through Israel and Jordania. As a matter of fact, Clinton’s administration first plan to supply them through Anatolia but the deep distrust existing between the Turkish and Kurdish governments prevents this. In addition, on April 6, Turkish authorities launch “Operation Hawk�, an offensive against rebels from the Kurdish Worker's Party (PKK) in south-eastern Turkey.
Africa also gets its share. Colonel Ibrahim Baré Maïnassara deposes the first democratically elected president of Niger in a military coup. Fighting breaks out in Monrovia, Liberia, between various rebel factions and the faction led by Charles Taylor comes on top. Unrest continues in South Africa and, despite this being met with increasingly brutal force, the neighbours and the world remains silent. In November, the vice-governor of South Kivu Province in Zaire orders the Banyamulenge to leave the country on penalty of death and they erupt in rebellion. Anti-Mobutu forces combines to form the Alliance of Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Zaire (AFDL). The AFDL receives the support of the leaders of African Great Lakes states, particularly Paul Kagame of Rwanda and Yoweri Museveni of Uganda while many elements of the Zairian Army joins Laurent Désiré Kabila as he marches from eastern Zaïre on Kinshasa.
Despite the various continuing tensions, the 1996 Summer Olympics in Atlanta see the participation of every nation in the world. Nevertheless, this is not enough to allow Clinton to win the presidential election. His continuous focus on welfare reform is increasingly seen as out of date by the population and his action of the Iraq Civil War is perceived as a failure by most. Many US citizens are now thinking that it only led to a strengthening of Iran. As a result, Clinton is defeated by an unexpected Republican candidate: Steve Forbes and his co-chairman, Pat Buchanan.
On the same day, Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto's government is dismissed by President Farooq Leghari after widespread allegations of corruption. She is soon replaced by a increasingly military leadership.

1997
Fewer events take place during this year but old tensions continue to grow while new and important ones appear. Nowadays, this year is regarded as the year that triggered everything.
Rebel activity doesn’t slow down all over the world and in one case the rebels gets the upper hand in the ongoing fighting. On March 6, in Sri Lanka, the Tamil Tigers overrun a military base and kill more than 200. Following this victory, they push their advantage and launch a major offensive that provide them with substantial territorial gains.
In June, China and Russia sign the Treaty of Good-Neighbourliness and Friendly Cooperation, effectively starting an active cooperation in both civilian and military fields. Article 9 of the treaty is seen as an implicit defence pact by the West and this doesn’t go with no consequences. The United Kingdom breaks the agreement that should have handed sovereignty of Hong Kong to the People's Republic of China, triggering the First Sino-Western crisis. Nothing happens beyond diplomatic level but UK reinforces its garrison there. The new U.S. administration is equally enraged and engages in a dramatic change of policy. First of all, it pushes NATO to invite Romania and Ukraine to join in 1999. Second, a fair increase in the military budget is voted and several older equipments that were put in reserve are now undergoing refit. Consequently, when the F-22 Raptor makes its first test flight, in September, the program gets more attention and secretary of defence declares that this plane is now intended to enter service in late 1999. At last, Forbes administration gets more deeply involved in the Iraqi Civil War and more supplies are sent to the Kurdish and Sunni factions. Again, the U.S. administration put pressure on Turkey but Ankara continues to refuse the opening of a supply line that would go from Antalya to Irbil.

Later, in September, when Turkey launches an offensive on PKK forces seeking refuge in Northern Iraq, the U.S. oppose this action and ask for a resolution from the UN security council. In addition, the U.S. provides a number of anti-air systems to the Kurds and several Turkish aircrafts are destroyed. Following these events, anti-American protests take place in several Turkish cities and the American embassy at Ankara is hit by mortar rounds in early November. Prime Minister Ahmet Mesut Yilmaz is forced out of office and popular pressure brings back Necmettin Erbakan to office (he was earlier pressured by the military to step down as the leader). On Christmas Eve, the constitution is amended and the country withdraws from NATO. In the meantime, U.S. diplomats succeed in bringing Albania, Greece and Macedonia to the discussion table. As a result, the three countries sign a mutual border agreement that provide some regional stability.
In Western Europe, the Italian National Conference last from January to the beginning of March and results in major changes for the country. Padania effectively gains independence and Umberto Bossi chose Ravenna to be the capital of the new state. This is done for both historical and political reasons: Ravenna had been the other capital city of the Western Roman Empire and Emilia-Romagna only reluctantly agrees to the Italian partition. As a result, the choice of Ravenna is intended to draw more support from that province’s population. While Padania already gained international recognition, the Napoli Republic is created over the southern half of the Peninsula. Ruled by a left-wing coalition named “Neo-Ulivo� and led by Romano Prodi. Both Italian states are immediately admitted to NATO. Finally, the Lazio and Sardigna don’t join with any of the two states and chose independence instead. They are led by Oscar Luigi Scalfaro (former Italian president) who immediately builds strong ties with Vatican City. As a result, that last state quickly becomes known as the “Papal State�.
After failure of a pyramid investment schemes and the loss of 1.2 billion$ invested by the Albanian population, thousands of citizens gather daily, demanding reimbursement. Protests soon turn violent in the south, especially around the port city of Vlora, where numerous residents arm themselves with weapons looted from army barracks. President Sali Berisha declares a state of emergency, but rioting and destruction spread throughout the country, gripping the capital, Tirana, for two weeks. Finally, anarchy sweeps across the country and the southern half of Albania falls under the control of rebels and criminal gangs. On March 11, the members of the Socialist Party win a major victory when their leader Bashkim Fino is appointed prime minister. However, the transfer of power does not stop unrest and, fearing the spread of unrest outside Albania's borders, the United Nations authorize a force of 7,000 to direct relief efforts and to restore order. After the unrest, over 3,000,000 guns are missing, they soon appear on the international market and many are transferred to the Kosovo Liberation Army (UçK).
Russia proposes to recognize Ukraine independence in return for the recognition of Crimea and for the transfer of all nuclear devices that had fallen under control of the Ukrainian government. Ukraine is reluctant to accept this as this agreement implies that it definitely gives up claims on Crimea but, undermined by corruption, organized crime and a 60% reduction of its GDP, it finally accepts as the country gains recognition from all Warsaw Pact 2 members in October.
The First Congo War comes to an end in May when Laurent-Désiré Kabila enters Kinshasa, proclaims himself President and changes the name of the country to Democratic Republic of Congo. The situation in South Africa worsens and the country slowly enters a civil war with heavy fighting taking place in the eastern half of the country.

1998
Early this year, the world attention is attracted again toward what is happening in the Balkan Region. UçK attacks suddenly intensify, centered on the Drenica valley area and Serbian police responds to the UçK attacks in the Likosane area. They even pursue some of the UçK to Cirez, resulting in the deaths of 30 Albanian civilians and four Serbian policemen. Then, on March 5, the
Serb police pursues Jashari and his followers in the village of Donje Prekaz. Ultimately, a massive fire fight at the Jashari compound lead to the massacre of a further 60 Albanians, of which eighteen were women and ten were under the age of sixteen.

This event provokes massive condemnation from the western capitals and Pat Buchanan, despite the U.S. State Department listing the UçK as a terrorist organization, states that "This should not be considered internal affair of the FRY". A week later, the USA, France and the United Kingdom ask for a U.N. resolution allowing for a military intervention but this is vetoed by both China and Russia.
On the 24th of March, Serbian forces surround the village of Glodjane, in the Dukagjin operational zone, and attack a rebel compound there. Despite superior firepower, the Serbs fail to destroy the UçK unit which has been their objective. Nevertheless, there are deaths and severe injuries on the Albanian side and U.S. asks again for a UN resolution. When this is refused President Forbes calls for a press conference in Washington. Accompanied by the Secretary of Defence and by the Joint Chief of Staff, he declares that “the situation in Kosovo is posing a risk to regional stability and represents a direct threat to several NATO members�. Unable to get UN backing, the U.S. administration turns to NATO and plans are made for an all-out air offensive on Serbia. Nevertheless, as tactical and strategical difficulties appear, the attack is postponed and it becomes obvious that it will not take place before the end of this year. Then, as fighting continue between UçK and Serbian forces, the western countries involved build up charges on Serbia. By year’s end evidences are brought up of a planned ethnic cleansing by the Serbian authorities and, despite strong denial by the Serbs, these evidences are repeatedly presented to the western public.
After the D8 summit in Istanbul, Turkish Prime Minister Necmettin Erbakan meets with the Iranian representative. Three weeks later, Turkey and Iran sign a military cooperation treaty also including the newly constituted Islamic Republic of Iraq. As a result, Turkey transfers technologies to Iran, sales several equipments while teams of engineers are sent to help in the modernization of the Iranian military forces.

This move is perceived as a threat by both Israel and the USA which suspend any collaboration that they still had with Turkey. More tensions appear when Turkey signs another agreement with Syria, establishing more friendly relations with that state. This time, the U.S. calls for an embargo on Turkey, followed in this by all NATO members. In retaliation, Turkey closes the Bosphorus to U.S. and E.U. military shipping. Israel, for its part, mobilizes more troops and increases its military presence in Southern Lebanon, also sending more supplies to the South Lebanese Army which soon expends to reach 3000 fighters again.
In August 1998, Kabila dismisses all ethnic Tutsis from the government and orders Rwandan and Ugandan officials to leave the DRC. The two countries then turns against their former client and send troops to aid rebels attempting to overthrow Kabila. Soon, the fall of the capital and Kabila, who had spent the previous weeks desperately seeking support from various African nations and Cuba, seems increasingly certain. Nevertheless, Kabila is saved when fellow members of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) respond to Kabila's request for help, soon joined by several more nations: Chad, Libya and Sudan. However, these forces are unable to defeat the rebels, and the situation slowly escalates into direct conflict with the national armies of Uganda and Rwanda that form part of the rebel movement. Outside of Africa, most states remain neutral but Western mining and diamond companies, most notably from the United States, Canada, Australia and Japan supports the Kabila government in exchange for business deals.