Bryn Monnery's estimation of what an independent Scottish Defence Force might look like might me helpful here.
The figures are based on late 1990's statistics, and are of course pre-Twilight War figures.
Scotland
Scotland consists of the extreme north of the island of Britain, and many of the islands off the north west. It’s territorial waters extend would 12 miles beyond it’s shores. ~9.6% of the UK’s population are Scottish or of Scottish descent (5.8 million), but the population of Scotland, but the population of Scotland is slightly less, 5.1 million, 8.3% of the total UK population of 61.6 million. GDP is on a par with the rest of the UK if the oil resources of the North Sea (which are in international, not Scottish waters and may not necessarily be ceded to Scotland, but rather to the BP Corporation, which is registered in London). For the purposes of this document we’ll stipulate that Scotland did indeed get the oil fields and has a GNP of roughly £67.7 billion.
Scottish Army
Scottish Regiments
Currently, the British Army has 10 Scottish Regiments. These are, in order of precedence:
1. Royal Scots Dragoon Guards (Tank Regiment)
2. 19 Regiment, Royal Artillery (Artillery Regiment)
3. 40 Regiment, Royal Artillery (Artillery Regiment)
4. Scots Guards (Infantry Battalion)
5. Royal Scots (Infantry Battalion)
6. Royal Highland Fusiliers (Infantry Battalion)
7. King’s Own Scots Borderers (Infantry Battalion)
8. The Black Watch (Infantry Battalion)
9. Argyll and Sutherland Highlanders (Infantry Battalion)
10. The Highlanders (Infantry Battalion)
It has been suggested that the Scots Guards would remain as part of the British Army, while the rest would be the core of the new Scottish Army. Currently Scotland does not produce enough soldiers to fill all these regiments, and Ghurkhas, Tongans and Fijians are used to fill out their ranks. They produce sufficient soldiers to fill 4 infantry battalions, and the following amalgamations have been suggested:
Royal Scots and KOSB as Royal Scots Borderers. Argyll and Sutherland Highlanders and The (Queens Own Cameron, Seaforth and Gordon) Highlanders as The (Argyll, Sutherland, Cameron, Seaforth and Gordon) Highlanders.
In terms of equipment, their share of APC’s would be sufficient for 1 Battalion of Armoured Infantry with Warrior, and another Battalion of Mechanised Infantry with Saxon. The RSDG is currently an Armoured Regiment with 58 Challenger 2 MBT. While the Regiments personnel (~400 men) would go to Scotland, major equipment such as this is not held at Regimental level, but rather in a common pool. Their share of British Armour would be 32 Challenger 2 MBT and 16 Scimitar Light Tanks, which fits nicely a structure of 2 Armoured and 2 Armoured Recce Squadrons. The 2 RA Regiments are both AS-90 regiments, but 19 has recently converted from a Light Gun Regiment. Again, these are not entirely Scottish. Scotlands share of the Artillery units would be 15 AS-90, 3 MLRS and 5 Light Guns (grouped together as a single Field Artillery Regiment). Their share of Air Defence equipment would be 39 Javelin/ Starstreak units (mostly Javelins, I’ll assume Javelin) and 4 Rapier units. In addition, a number of Scots serve in non-territorially aligned support units (Engineers, REME, RAMC, RLC etc.). These support units are 60% of the army, so we’ll prorate to the modern British Army to produce 5,550 support personnel and a Regular Army of 9,250 men. There is currently 1 regular brigade based in Scotland, 52 (Infantry) Brigade, which controls regular infantry battalions in Edinburgh, Preston and Chester.
Scottish Territorial Army
The TA units stationed in Scotland would become part of the Scottish TA. These are:
HQ 51 (Scottish) Brigade
A (Ayrshire) and C (Fife and Fofar) Squadrons, The Queens’ Own Yeomanry (Land Rover Mounted Recce units, ~100 men each)
207 and 212 Batteries, Royal Artillery (Artillery Batteries, ~100 men each)
102 Field Squadron, RE (Engineer Squadron, ~100 men)
32 Signals Regiment, RSigs (Communications Battalion, ~500 men)
Lowland Volunteers (TA Infantry Battalion, ~500 men)
Highland Volunteers (TA Infantry Battalion, ~500 men)
Scottish Transport Regiment, RLC (Logistics Regiment, ~500 men)
Squadron of 23 SAS (Reserve Special Forces, ~70 men)
15 Company of 4th Battalion, the Parachute Regiment (Airborne Infantry Company, ~100 men)
205 Field Ambulance (Medical Battalion) and 255 Medical Squadron (Company)
This gives the corps of a 2nd Brigade, consisting mainly of territorials.
Scottish Navy
Currently the strategic deterrent is based in Scotland, but this doesn’t mean it will be handed over to Scotland. The Submarine Fleet is 10 boats, and handing one of these over would cause apoplexy, especially as the SNP doesn’t want nuclear powered vessels. The Carriers, Assault ships etc. would be retained by the Anglo-Irish state. Scotlands’ share of the navy would be 3 vessels of the Destroyer-Frigate force and 2 Minehunters. Maybe one of the logistics carriers too. None of these are particularly useful for the Scottish Navy, and maybe they could use them as bargaining chips with the Anglo-Irish state for some more useful vessels (like the fisheries patrol craft).
Scottish Air Force
There are current 14 combat squadrons in the RAF. Scotland’s share would be a single combat squadron of 12 aircraft, probably the older Jaguars although Tornado GR.4s are also based in Scotland. Their share of the support force would be a single transport squadron with 4 Hercules, and 2 VC-10 tankers. Maritime Command has 3 squadrons of Nimrods assigned to the GIUK gap in Kinloss. It would be legitimate for one of these to be transferred to the Scottish Airforce. Of the Helicopter force, 2 Chinooks would be transferred to the Scots, along with 3 Wessex. The Army Helicopter force would also hand over 9 Lynx and 9 Gazelle.
Probable ORBAT
Scottish Navy
ex-HMS Sheffield (Type 22/2 Frigate)
ex-HMS Coventry (Type 22/2 Frigate)
ex-HMS Cardiff (Type 42 Destroyer)
ex-HMS Brecon (Hunt class Minesweeper)
ex-HMS Ladbury (Hunt class Minesweeper)
* Crews of these vessels would consist of 1,062 officers and men. The total force is 3,500. Also some naval helicopters.
Scottish Army
Army Level Units
Scottish Special Service Regiment (mix of Reserve and Regular Para’s, Marines and SAS)
Artillery
207/212 Area Air Defence Battery (V) (4 Rapiers)
19 Field Regiment (3 MLRS + 15 AS-90) (2 close support Battery with 6x AS-90 and 1x Depth Fire Battery with a troop of 3 MLRS and a troop of 3x AS-90 Braveheart)
40 Air Defence Regiment (36 Javelin)
51 Mechanised Brigade
Scots Dragoon Guards (1 Arm-Recon Sqn w 8x Scimtar, 2 Tank Sqn w 14x Challenger 2)
Scots Borderers (Armoured Infantry Battalion with Warrior)
The Highlanders (Mechanised Infantry Battalion with Saxon)
Black Watch (Regular Light Infantry Battalion)
52 Infantry Brigade
Scottish Yeomanry (1 Arm-Recon Sqn w 8x Scimitar, 2 Recon Sqn w Land Rovers (Reserve)
Highland Fusiliers (Regular Light Infantry Battalion)
The Lowland Volunteers (Reserve Light Infantry Battalion)
The Highland Volunteers (Reserve Light Infantry Battalion)
* Plus necessary support units. Regular army is 9,250 soldiers backed up by 3,200 reservists.
Scottish Airforce
Fighter Squadron (12x Jaguar or Tornado GR.4)
Transport Squadron (4x Hercules and 2x VC-10)
Maritime Patrol Squadron (8x Nimrod)
Army Support Helicopter Regiment (2x Chinook, 9x Lynx, 9x Gazelle)
* 2,500 strong.
This force would cost around £1.6 billion per annum and require Scotland to keep paying 2.4% of GNP for defence, which is in line with the UK spending rate.
Although I doubt that the Republic of Scotland would be operating an airforce or navy beyond a few helicopters, the army is more realistic. Most regular army regiments, particularly units such as the Scots Guard and the Black Watch are likely to remain loyal to government and the British monarchy in particular, but some territorial army units could defect to a Scottish Republic.
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