View Single Post
  #2  
Old 10-31-2018, 06:42 PM
RandyT0001's Avatar
RandyT0001 RandyT0001 is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 249
Default

From historical trends as determined from world population numbers. Using world population numbers eliminates immigration as a factor in the growth of an area or a country. Only births minus deaths (from all causes - war, disease, etc.) determines the growth rate.

It is estimated that the total polulation of the world reached one billion in 1800. By 1927 the world reached two billion. This was a time where there was some pre-industrial farming, the establishment of industrialized processing of food, and the beginnings of industrailized farming with the steam tractor on the Great Plains of the US. I determined that this growth rate was about 0.55% for the time period.

From 1927 to 1987, a time of great advances in farming, industrial processes, medicine, refrigeration and freezing of foods on a industrial scale and appliances for the consumer, the population increased from two billion to five billion. This required a growth rate of 1.52% to achieve.

The growth rate of 0.9% is approximately the same rate of growth of the world population from 1800 to 1987.

Low growth = 0.3% (Three tenths of one percent)
Slow growth = 0.6%
Modest growth = 0.9%
Late 19th to early 20th = 1.2%
Mid 20th to late 20th = 1.5%

IMO, the high rate for mid to late 20th is primarily due to more clean food and water plus more and better drugs. Without modern medicine, no entity should achieve 1.5% growth rate.
Reply With Quote