Thread: T2K Today
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Old 01-02-2009, 02:45 PM
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ChalkLine ChalkLine is offline
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Israel will in all likelihood not make a ground entrance into the Gaza, as they have Hamas nicely bottled up and can pound them there with minimal risk. Their absolute indifference to global opinion means they don't need a quick resolution, and they can continue to victimise the Palestinians until after the February election. Hamas can't get out, Egypt hates them just as much as they have strong ties to the Egyptian 'permanent opposition' (so much for Egyptian democracy) so they'll do whatever they can to fight back, which unfortunately translates to more crappy home made rockets blowing up farmland. Followed by IDF jets dropping 2000lb bombs.

Iraq may well turn into an utter shit hole when the last foreign forces pull out, but that was going to happen anyway. It remains to be seen if the parliamentary system will hold, because unlike many other Persian areas tribalism isn't as strong in Iraq and there are far less familial ties to tear the country apart. The lull you see now is the stockpiling of munitions and the gathering of strength for the big test when it's just Iraqis duking it out. Iran has a lot to fear, and may have to move troops up to the border when it all flies apart, which is bound to be misinterpreted in the west.

Russia and Ukraine are playing their old game. Ukraine wants a settled Afghanistan and points south so they can import their fuel, and Russia is getting in some kicks now while they can. Don't be quick to paint Ukraine as the underdog, they pull a lot of shitty stuff in Russia. For instance, most heroin in Russia comes through the Ukrainian organitskya, rumoured to have official help.

The UN is compartmentalising Congo and Sudan, and have managed to actually try one of the Sudanese alleged war criminals (yay UN!). Unfortunately, the Congo is going to be an utter hell hole for another century at least because the warring tribes are all proxy funded by international mining companies (a' la 'Dogs of War'). There is no political or military solution there, but the fighting is usually limited to the capital and the resource areas. Yes, another ugly year for the Congolese on top of the last three hundred.

Iran's not in a good place. Israel is having an election soon and often gets very feisty militarily around then - it's been noted that nearly every recent conflict the IDF has had has been around an election. Iran is going to be out of oil within fifty years and needs a new power infrastructure before then, and would like nuclear parity with the IDF if possible (but then, so does everyone in the Middle East). Iran is having Kurd troubles again and is making quiet talks with Turkey, which is having the usual problems of theocracy/democracy hurdles. Iran's moderate faction really wants stable borders, but with Afghanistan, Iraq and de facto Kurdistan all hopping its playing right into the extremist's hands.

Mexico isn't having much fun, thier economy's tanking bad as more developed economies are venting pressure into it and unemployment is going up again. The border provinces are experiencing severe law and order breakdown, and the recent anti-Mexican rhetoric used to their north has made them unlikely to help out with the drug smuggling problems except where it suits themselves. The president has moved troops into the northern provinces to wrest control back and an insurgency is starting up via the drug barons. Looks nasty.

Asia's looking rather stable as the big powers have found other things to dick with, leaving the pace primarily to Chinese investors. Thailand's a bit unstable, but that's just the usual domestic stuff and not military. Jihadism seems to be down at the moment with the new US president having Indonesian history, which really is appreciated there.

South America is fairly quiet, and even that painful wound in the Caribbean - Haiti - seems to be keeping the lid on. From what I hear though it's only held together by the troops there.

Zimbabwe is a nightmare, and Bob's certifiably bug-fuck insane. However, the ZANU-PD machine is almost entirely military now and is not letting go. South Africa isn't about to set a match to that, but there's rising demands that 'something be done' (usually the precursor to something disastrous) from everyone. The Zimbabwe soldiers are the sole beneficiaries of any money in Zimbabwe, and their kit and skills aren't bad on sub-Saharan scale. The Zimbabwian people know better to try an insurgency, it'd make the Rwandan massacres look tame - but something has to give.
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