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Originally Posted by Jason
Putin is reported to be deploying 1,000 mercenaries to Ukraine, but those reports are unconfirmed.
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Is that Wagner Group? If so, that "company" is essentially just a front for Spetsnaz (the name and PMC designation is a weak attempt at plausible deniability).
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jason
Big questions. Would Putin leverage captured foriegn fighters from NATO member nations to expand the war?
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He could, but it would be a fairly weak pretext. I agree with BestBrian's assessment.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jason
Will NATO allow Ukrainian fighter jets to rearm amd refuel at bases outside Ukraine?
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Not anytime soon, if ever. Doing so would give Russia a much stronger pretext for expanding the war.
What I'm wondering right now is what impact the refugee crisis (1.5m and counting) is going to have on EU/NATO calculus, both short and long term. Could a continuing flood of Ukrainian DPs force NATO to intervene militarily? It's unlikely, but what could happen if refugee support systems start to buckle? In the long term, if/when Russia conquers Ukraine, millions of Ukrainian refugees residing in multiple countries right next door could help sustain a very lengthy insurgency. This could cause all sorts of political and diplomatic issues between Russia and the host countries which could, again, lead to an expansion of the war.
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