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Old 06-04-2021, 09:22 AM
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Raellus Raellus is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 3catcircus View Post
Given the real-world current events, it would seem that a PRC-US alliance is highly unlikely even in an alternate history scenario. Other than Biden's missteps and the lack of action after the two US-DPRK summits, it would seem that a DPRK-US alliance would have been more likely. Especially since the Korea's, Japan, Taiwan, Malaysia, and Vietnam are all pretty riled up about the PRCs moves in the regional sea lanes.
I don't follow. The OP is about the v1 or 2.2 timelines. The above would make sense, potentially, for v4 or a c.2030 scenario, but it doesn't work for v1 or 2.2.

In v1-2.2, the Soviet Union attacks China, effectively starting WW3. Being as the USSR is still perceived by the West as a much bigger threat than the PRC, in those timelines (c. 1995 in both), China receives military aid from the West. In realpolitik terms, "the enemy of my enemy is my friend". It makes almost perfect sense.

I agree with you that in a more up-to-date timeline, a US-PRC alliance is highly unlikely, even in the equally unlikely event that Russia attacks China. I think the PRC could hold its own, if not curb-stop the Russian military, nowadays.

However, a DPRK-US alliance is even more unlikely- it's almost completely out of the question- in any plausible timeline. The PRC sees the DPRK as a useful catspaw/foil. Yeah, Pyongyang can be an annoyance to Beijing, but the DPRK is useful buffer against capitalist, democratic powerhouses, South Korea and Japan, and a perennial nuisance to the USA. China has far more economic and diplomatic influence on the DPRK ever had, or likely ever will have. Pyongyang does not view the PRC as an existential threat. It's a de facto ally. Its entire military is oriented south, not north. On the other hand, Pyongyang sees the USA as its mortal enemy, and an existential threat. It developed nuclear weapons because of a genuine fear that the US would someday attack North Korea to overthrow the Kim dynasty (this fear was only heightened after G.W. Bush's "Axis of Evil" speech and the subsequent invasion of one of the named countries- Iraq- and toppling of its dictator, effectively catalyzing the DPRK's nuclear weapons program).

The last US presidential administration's theatrical overtures notwithstanding, there's been no genuine detente between the US and the DPRK. The DPRK threatened to nuke the USA as recently as 2018. Tensions remain high to this day. I just don't see any possibility of a US-DPRK alliance against China or anyone else for that matter, in this timeline or in any other.

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Last edited by Raellus; 06-04-2021 at 09:55 AM.
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