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Originally Posted by Raellus
The shipping is available but couldn't just a single, old, Sturgeon class SSN sink it all, though? The PACT shipping wouldn't have much in the way of ASW escorts. I may be underestimating them but I don't think that Cuba has much capability in that realm.
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Yes, a single old Sturgeon could rip the invasion fleet apart. If the USN knew it was coming. And if the USN had a Sturgeon within range. A Sturgeon carries up to 19 torpedoes, so if they send 20 ships at least one will get through! It's just over a 3 day voyage at 15 knots from Cienfuegos to Tampico.
But given that in the spring of 1998 the US is in "strategic shock", with lines in Europe and Iran pretty static as everything gets sorted out, I would see the remaining USN submarine force being oriented towards boomers - hunting down Soviet boomers and riding shotgun (most likely in a "zone defense") for American boats. I can't see maintaining a patrol of the Caribbean as a high priority for the remnants of the US SSN force. I'd say that interdiction by maritime patrol aircraft (US Coast Guard Falcons or C-130s; the Navy's P-3s are in deep water) would be most likely, but the limited strike aircraft are tied down supporting the battle ashore. My gut feeling is that the Soviet transport fleet makes it through undiscovered due to the chaos in the US following the exchange. That failure burns the USN deeply, so much that they assign LA-class boats to patrol the entrances to the Caribbean on an occasional basis, leading to the torpedoing of the Bulgarian
A.B. Buzko by the
Corpus Christi (yes, that's what's written in Gateway to the Spanish Main!) on November 1, 2000 off Grenada.