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Originally Posted by Raellus
That's true, and probably the biggest consideration holding the PRC back ATM. However, the PRC can count on Russia for at least some of that fuel (and maybe food too). That's why China won't condemn Russia's war in Ukraine. It's essentially an "if you've got my back, I'll have yours" transaction. They're partners in crime.
Given how well Russia's been able to dodge or circumvent sanctions, I reckon China will have similar, if not greater, success, if it comes to that. More importantly, the USA is far more dependent on Chinese goods and investment than it ever was on Russian goods. Economic sanctions v. China would hurt the US economy much worse than sanctions on Russia ever could. Would the US and its allies have the stomach for a full-scale trade war with the PRC? Given the drag that international supply chain issues were on the US economy during and shortly after the height of the Covid epidemic, I'm not so sure.
Currently, the PLN can't compete with the US and its allies in the Indian Ocean. However, the Chinese navy continues to grow in both size and capability. I'm somewhat concerned that the USA is not doing enough to maintain numerical and technological superiority.
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Looking at the calculus with Russia, I'd also note that China has to be thinking about what the world looks like without Russia acting as a foil to their ambitions.
Regardless of the outcome in Ukraine, Russia's conventional military is going to be decimated for a generation, perhaps multiple generations depending upon the length and severity of ongoing sanctions. Sure they'll have nukes which will always be a deterrent to nations invading Russia, but no one serious is thinking there will be a horde of Russian tanks moving into Poland anytime soon.
I don't think anyone is really talking about it yet, but once this active war winds down in Ukraine, I imagine there's going to be a lot of folks looking to ramp down NATO defense spending (yes there's a spending blitz right now, but it won't last). Without the specter of a massive Russian conventional military force looming over Europe, does NATO spending even still make sense? I could see the US downsizing it's Atlantic fleet as well, depending upon political appointments, or potentially shifting some resources to the Pacific.
In any case, without Russia being the western world's boogeyman, all eyes are going to shift to China. There will be a LOT of incentive amongst the American military machine to find a new existential threat once Russia is no longer on the table in order to justify spending levels, and China's going to get most all of that attention. The west will need to be careful not to ramp up its own rhetoric and inadvertently force China into a war it may not even want. I imagine this may be one of the other reasons that China is hedging its bets on Russia at the moment. Better to have a weakened neighbor to the north, despite its shortcomings, that will keep the west's focus away from your own human rights abuses and military build up.