I think this all depends on how the status quot is maintained. Is the Soviet Union a nation that survives by lurching from one economic disaster to the next with half-hearted reform acting as the duct-tape that holds the nation together? Or has the Soviet Union found a way to "pull a China" by embracing capitalism while retaining an authoritarian government and yet still calling its self a socialist republic out of some bizarre attachment to Moa, oops I mean Lenin?
If it is the former than there is a good chance that the Gulf War still occurs, Soviet leadership would see the Iraqi occupation of Kuwait as a way to increase their influence in the Persian Gulf and distract the United States. Yugoslavia would probably still collapse as the USSR would lack the influence to bring the Yugoslav states in line. Nor would they be able to help Somalia or any number of ailing clients. A Soviet Union viewed as an increasingly ramshackle failing state would help to shape international relations in the years leading up to the Twilight War. If the Soviet Union is seen less as threat than perhaps this is why West Germany was willing to risk reunification and why Italy and Greece were willing to bail on NATO.
A stronger Soviet Union would be able to rein in its satellites. NATO would continue to be the front line of defense against the Red Horde. The events occurring right before the war would catch the world by surprise and while better prepared materially (due to a continued Cold War) both sides would be unprepared for war in Europe.
Benjamin
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