[Legbreaker]

But would the specialists be where they're needed?

At the slightest rumour of nukes you're likely to see a mass exodus from possible target areas - oil fields are a definate possibility. A large number of oil workers, miners, etc are contractors, brought in from elsewhere. This is especially true of the more remote locations such as ocean oil rigs, open cut mines, and so on.

I couldn't say what the percentage may be of local workers to contractors, however I'd have to say even locals would be inclined to flee and stay with friends and relatives in more "safe" areas, thereby stripping the "target" areas of skilled workers.

Yes, this may reduce specialist casualties, but what if these people were caught downwind, or misjudged where nukes would strike, or any number of other events?

My thoughts are that regardless of the actual percentage, the required specialists aren't necessarily going to be where they're wanted. They're also unlikely to be easily found and moved due to the almost total lack of communications networks, outdated census details, and devastated transportation systems. It is also probable that many of these specialists will not want to leave their families in a time of great peril. They may also strongly resist returning into what may be perceived as very dangerous areas (may have been nukes nearby, or just the rumour of them).

As time passes things are likely to change of course, but I can't see much progress for the first 5-10 years.