my 2 cents
Welcome to the boards - good thread .
The issue of nuclear hits on Japan has one more dimension for the Soviets in teh T2K timeline imho - wether or not its been mentioned already - Japan is one of the states that think thanks etc consider "capable of going nuclear " within 6 months .
Meaning that given a huge budget by its goverment ,it can amass and deploy resources ,technology and know how to develop and produce a nuclear bomb within 6 months.
For the Sovs not to disable Japan while they have the capacity would be a strategic blunder as far as I see .
That it would happen in the T2K universe is a different matter - the Soviets could just as well threaten Tokyo with obliteration but leave them largely intact to use them as a vassal factory state after its own industry has been crippled by the Yanks.( Thias mentioned as an example out of infinite possibilities).
As for the situation on the ground in T2K JApan I would go with THREADS rather than "unscathed". Japan has reserves od fuel and food for app 6 months as far as I know -enough to weather an increase in tension between China and Taiwan that could block shipping lanes or other major disaster that could disrupt commerce .But a full stop or significant reduction in imports of food would lead to famine and related social unrest etc etc
all imho of course
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