This a very complex issue, involving macro-economic factors and realpolitik.
I think that the speed at which a given country is capable of increasing military protection is the key factor.
The nation's geo-political goals and strategies will also factor in in a major way.
And, to a lesser degree, whether arms producers are privately or state-owned.
Presumably, France would see the writing on the wall and seek to bolster its own military in order to be prepared for the impending global crisis. As a result, production capacity would be devoted to domestic "consumption." Unless overall capacity was simultaneously increased, production for export would likely decrease somewhat. Unless, that is, unless France is willing to expand its production capacity pretty dramatically.
Then again, maybe France thinks it can better position itself to weather the coming storm by bolstering others' military forces.
Whether it's French gov't contracts, or foreign buyers, either way the French arms industry makes money.
France could kill two birds with one stone too, by upgrading it's own military with newer/better equipment and sell the stuff that's being replaced to foreign buyers. For example, if France is able/willing to expand and/or speed up its LeClerc production (for its own army), it would have surplus AMX-30s to sell to China or Mexico, etc.
So yeah, it depends.
Last edited by Raellus; 12-06-2018 at 04:32 PM.
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