This is actually something I have been looking at for a possible module for release on drivethrurpg.com
One thing that the authors of the canon may not have considered with the Great Game and the border between the US and Mexico was where the water comes from in Southern CA - which is almost exclusively from northern CA except for the water going to San Diego and the Imperial Valley which comes from the Colorado River.
The water from the Colorado River that goes to San Diego and the Imperial Valley is gravity fed so as long as the Mexicans hold the dam that feeds it they can get water. But the water going to LA and that whole area comes almost exclusively from either local water sources - which the nukes in the area would have contaminated and which cant support anywhere near the population in the area by themselves even if they werent contaminated - or by a series of aqueducts and pipes from the North and other areas that have to pumped UP AND OVER the mountains to get there - pumps which now are not working with electricity cut off throughout the state
Thus how are the Mexicans occupying the area from just south of Bakersfield to just north of San Diego with basically almost no water? And more importantly how do they keep that area in 2300AD when the local water sources, at most, even if not contaminated can support less than a million people in that area - its why LA didnt really grow until after they started getting water pumped into the area
Would be a big part of any push by MilGov to retake the area - i.e. they have water and the Mexicans dont. And could see a more realistic 2300AD situation being that Mexico may hold onto San Diego and the Imperial Valley as long as they can keep southern Arizona as well.
Lose that and they would have no choice but to abandon their CA conquests.
So in the end reconquering southern CA may come down more to the Mexicans having no choice but to leave because of the water situation no matter what the fuel and manpower issues are with MilGov.
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