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Old 11-18-2018, 10:00 AM
mmartin798 mmartin798 is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Michigan
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dragoon500ly View Post
As part of my research into a larger Free State, ran some interesting numbers…

The states that make up the larger Free State are listed below, followed by three sets of numbers; the population as of the 2000 Census/remaining population following the 95% die off/ the new population with a 0.8% growth rate and 150 years of growth.

Alabama: 4,447,100//222,355//489,181

Georgia: 8,186,453//409,323//900,511

Kentucky:4,041,769//202,089//444,596

Maryland: 5,296,486//264,824//582,613

New York: 18,976,457//948,823//2,087,410

North Carolina: 8,049,313//402.466//885,425

Pennsylvania: 12,281,054//614,053//1,350,917

South Carolina: 4,012,012//200,601//441,322

Tennessee: 5,689,283//284,464//625,821

Vermont: 608,827//30,441//66,970

West Virginia: 1,808,344//90,417//198,917

The "new" population totals include only projected birth rates, and do not account for the influx of slaves.

Based on this, IMHO, I truly don't see Kentucky as the center of the Free State, more likely Pennsylvania/New York would be the new center, with larger populations, access to minerals, recovered technology and the extensive university system in those two states.

Thoughts?
I just ran some numbers comparing 4th edition impact sites with a population map of New York by county. I made the assumption that only 1% would survive in the impact counties and 5% everywhere else. The numbers on this map were based on 2018 estimation with a total starting population of 19,862,512. After the applying the model, I get a postwar year zero population of 740720 for the state of New York. New York still has a sizable population, though it could be argued that a group forming in this are would be pushed toward Lake Ontario.
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