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Old 08-29-2009, 11:32 PM
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Mohoender Mohoender is offline
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[QUOTE=sglancy12;12786]
If America is nuked and Mexico isn't, why are there Mexican's trying to get into America?
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They don't. Mexicans living in US cross back into Mexico and they are soon followed by US citizens fleeing to what they think is a safer area.

[QUOTE=sglancy12;12786]
Mexico is not nuked by the USSR in 1997. Their extraction and refining capacity is undamaged. So their access to fuel will give them a huge advantage over the US military which is fuel poor and spread out in 1998 doing disaster relief, food distribution, and attempting to impose order through martial law.
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agree

[QUOTE=sglancy12;12786]
Instead, Mexico gets nuke by the United States. After they invade, we kill their oilfields and refineries which results in a complete logistical breakdown in their army and a political breakdown as the 8 million people living in Mexico City have to go without lights, water and food. Civil order breaks down and the civil war re-ignites. Invasion over, Mexican Army stranded across the southwest.
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Agree again, but that nuking could be limited and part of the Mexican oil facilities might survive.

[QUOTE=sglancy12;12786]
But what about the casus belli? The massacre of Mexican refugees in America? If Mexico is not nuked in 1997, why are Mexicans into a nuked America from Mexico?
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They are not and the massacred refugees are US citizens living in refugee camps into Mexico. The Casus Belli is provided by small US units crossing the border in an attempt to relief them.

[QUOTE=sglancy12;12786]
On the other hand, maybe the PRS/PPS alliance just invented the stories of "massacres" of refugees? Maybe they also whipped up the population with stories (ala Hugo Chavez) that the Americans were about to invade to seize Mexico's oil industries. Maybe they sell the invasion as a "pre-emptive" attack?
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That's what some in the US do.

[QUOTE=sglancy12;12786]
Maybe "Division Cuba" is larger than a division? Maybe they bring some undamaged air assets beside Mi-28 Hind Ds? Some Mig-23s or Su-27s could make things easier for the Mexicans.

Maybe the Cubans and Nicaraguans are providing troops, advisers, or equipment disguised by wearing Mexican uniforms and sporting Mexican livery? In my timeline the Sandinistas regain power in 1996. They could be helping the Mexicans, and then quickly regret sending some of their military out of the country when Hurrican Mitch plows through in October of 1998. By then, after the US has nuked the Mexicans energy reserves, any Sandinistas in Mexico are marooned there.

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Division Cuba is enough but you can count on some air support. Yes cubans could be involved and may be Venezuelian. Cubans can be quite numerous with veteran troops previously located in Angola.

[QUOTE=sglancy12;12786]
After Hugo Chavez is elected President of Venezulea in December of 1998, he can throw some fuel and other assistance at the Mexicans. He'll probably be sending aid to his ideological brothers in Nicaragua too.
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Why would Chavez be elected in 1998? Isn't it easier to have him elected in 1993 after a successful coup in 1992?

An important point that can explain the Mexican success would be the relative weakness of the US 4th Fleet. IMO the US navy lacks any carrier in the area and if successful it remains unable to fully control the carribeans.
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