[sglancy12]

Originally Posted by Legbreaker

From the Australian point of view, it's extremely doubtful we'd take any of the South Africans if Apartied was still in force. Australian's like to think we're multicultural (the reality is somewhat different), and so the populace would strongly resist what might essentially be the setting up of a racist "sub-nation" within our borders.

I had read that back during the apartheid Australia was taking a lot of whites who were fleeing South Africa... so maybe they would accept South African refugees (they speak English, they are of European descent, they are Christians) if they came individually, but not if they were part of some kind of Afrikaner "nukes for land" swap?

Originally Posted by Legbreaker

We'd also be likely to reject any offers of nuclear weapons even though we're one of the greatest producers of Uranium in the world. We also only have one tiny research reactor in the country, which is regularly picketed by anti nuke protesters.

But (in my timeline) Australia is going to be locked in a military struggle with Indonesia. The creepy military government Indonesia has embraced the Jihadists in order to co-opt them into a ultra nationalist movement to focus and distract the population with a war to liberate the "occupied" areas of "Greater Indonesia," most importantly Borneo and New Guinea.

(BTW This war will involved Australia, Papua New Guinea, Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei, and East Timor fighting against Indonesia. Maybe even the Philippines if the Muslim/Nationalists in Indonesia are supporting a full-blown Moro rebellion in Mindanao.)

The Australian military might need the nukes to fend off the Indonesians.

I do think that after the Twilight War that experimental nuke plant better be upgraded to produce power or Australia is going to start looking like "Road Warrior" when their access to Indonesian oil dries up. The protesters can go out to the radioactive crater at Pine Gap and protest US imperialism out there. I can't imagine the Sovs not dropping a weapon on the NSA/GCHQ facility Pine Gap even if Australia stays neutral in the conflict.

Originally Posted by Legbreaker

I would imagine New Zealand would have a similar outlook.

I can't imagine the Kiwis swapping nukes for refugees... after all who would they nuke with them? Sure, I imagine New Zealand giving covert assistance to Australia during their war with Indonesia, but apart from fending off pirates/refugees, disaster relief, and controlling internal lawlessness, what is the New Zealand military going to do?

Originally Posted by Legbreaker

With regard to what might happen with South Africa as a country, my guess is very little would change. My understanding is that under Apartied they had to become virtually self sufficient in almost all ways, developing their own military hardware, etc. Therefore the collapse of the rest of the world would likely have little real impact on them.

That's sort of my take on it to. Mandela might never be released from prison, his (now ex-) wife might rise in prominence and the ANC might become more communist-aligned.

Originally Posted by Legbreaker

On the other hand, WWIII might spark a general uprising in the native population, and along with an influx of refugees from other African countries which even though aren't subject to white rule would be in worse state, the military would be hard pressed to keep control.

I think the refugees plus the internal dissent might spark a general rebellion. Imagine the current refugee problem in South Africa. The current government seems content to let local South Africans beat and murder refugees in order to "encourage" them to leave the country. The Apartheid government might tolerate this kind of violence too, so long as it is directed at blacks from other countries, assuming wrongly that it doesn't matter so long as it's blacks killing blacks. With the right incident all that violence could end up directed against the government and the white minority population, especially if South Africa's neighbors are beating the drums of "national liberation" and "anti-colonialism."

So? would the white government, military and police go down under a tidal wave?

Or would they cut a power sharing deal with the Zulus to fight at their side against the Showa and other tribes of South Africa?

Or would they retreat to someplace like Capetown, with their backs to the sea, and be besieged?

Is there a more defensible/resource rich area of South Africa that would be a good place for the Apartheid government to try and make a last stand?

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