View Single Post
  #16  
Old 08-08-2020, 05:57 AM
Targan's Avatar
Targan Targan is offline
Moderator
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Perth, Western Australia
Posts: 3,735
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by pmulcahy11b View Post
According to CNN yesterday, this has been revised upwards to 3 Kt.
CNN has used the highest value in the explosive yield range suggested by a very rough analysis using the TNT-equivalent blast calculations developed at the end of the 1940s to estimate the yields of atomic blasts. I think it would have been more sensible for them to give the full range from that early analysis, which was 0.4kt to 3kt.

A summary of the calculations used can be found at this link: http://www.atmosp.physics.utoronto.c...imensional.pdf

Further refining of the estimates has come from analysis of the seismic effects of the explosion, as mentioned by others previously.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legbreaker View Post
Also, there's absolutely no way 2.7 kt of AN will yield a 3kt explosion. Basic physics states that is a bald faced lie.

Ammonium Nitrate only has 0.32 the energy of TNT, the explosive nuclear yields are measured against. At BEST, it would have have yielded 0.864 kt. If the stars had aligned and everything have been absolutely perfect (enough fuel oil/diesel had soaked in to the AN, somehow mixed itself evenly, and it had exploded within 24 hours of doing so), then, and only then would it have managed a yield of no more than 1.998 kt. Okay, MAYBE 2kt if you include the fireworks that set it off...

MAYBE...
Broadly I agree with this. 3kt is unrealistic, but assuming the Lebanese authorities allow outside observers in to do a more comprehensive analysis, I'm sure we'll have a better idea in the weeks and months to come.
__________________
"It is better to be feared than loved" - Nicolo Machiavelli
Reply With Quote