Matt, I'm inclined to agree that a low-yield nuke or two directed against the most important leadership targets in Mexico City seems in order. I also agree that the appearance of a mushroom cloud of any dimensions over Mexico City gives some impetus to rebellious elements.
So the question becomes why it takes until 2000 for the civil war to break out. I do think we should find ways to keep the canon applecart more or less upright. Does this help us to understand why comparatively few Mexican reinforcements go north after 1998? Is the Mexican Army busy supporting counter-insurgency efforts by the various police forces? I've postulated significant unrest in previous threads. Perhaps the unrest reaches all the way to the top in some areas.
Red Star, Lone Star claims that the Second Mexican-American War was started more so that the PRI could maintain control than to protect Mexican lives. The primary opposition to the government in Mexico City calls itself the Constitucionales, referring to the 1917 Mexican Constitution. The Constitucionales claim that the Federales violated Mexican constitutional law in 1998, though we don’t have a lot of detail on the matter.
Given all of this, and my desire to incorporate a great deal of Turboswede’s excellent material into Thunder Empire, I want to try the following on for size:
In the 1980’s, Mexico develops a more self-sufficient arms industry with an eye on Brazil as a role model. DN constructs a number of VAB under license and refits earlier models for specialty roles. Additionally, DN manufactures some Cadillac-Gage vehicles under license. In both vases, the hope is that Mexico can make some arms sales to Central America as an alternative to the Cold War rivals. Africa and the Middle East are eyed as potential customers. However, the Mexican arms industry never really takes off and never really goes beyond improving Mexican self-sufficiency.
Fast-forward to the 1990’s, and the Sino-Soviet War gives the Mexican arms industry a shot in the arm. China is in the market for everything; Mexico ramps up and re-starts production of several types of light AFV. Consequently, when the nukes start flying the Mexicans have some finished AFV on the docks and others on the assembly line. This can help explain the dramatic improvement in Mexican levels of mechanization in Turboswede’s guide vis-*-vis the GDW Mexican Army OB.
In the wake of the surgical nuclear exchange at the end of 1997, the Soviets are starting to develop a use-or-lose-it attitude. Sub-launched cruise missile attacks against boomers at their moorings have demonstrated that the docks are no longer safe havens for Soviet ballistic missile submarines. When the Soviets put their boats to sea, the Western attack submarines quickly begin sinking them. When the idea of nuking Mexican oil production comes up, it is pointed out that deniability is a big part of the plan. The attacks have to come from a submarine so that the Soviets at least can pretend that the Americans are to blame. Since the boomer fleet is experiencing very serious attrition, the decision is made to go ahead with the attacks against Mexican oil in December 1997.
PRI responds by suspending elections. In real life, the PRI was in decline during the 1990’s. PAN was on the rise. The 1998 elections put ten of thirty-one governorships on the block. PAN, which was already strong in the north of the country and in the Yucatan, seemed poised to make major gains. State legislatures also were up for re-election across the country.
Incorporating these ideas into a picture of Twilight: 2000 Mexico, we might imagine that the Soviets convince the PRI that the Americans are responsible for the attacks on Mexican oil. The Americans, claim the Soviets, want to prevent Mexico from claiming her place in the sun in the Western Hemisphere. For a variety of reasons, the PRI senior leadership places blame for the attack on the US.
Elsewhere in the country, blame is assigned to the Soviets and occasionally the French (who are taking revenge for Cinco de Mayo). In particular, the PAN believe that the Soviets are using Mexico as their patsies. While PAN is split about affections towards the US, the party certainly doesn’t want to be anyone’s dupes.
PRI, recognizing an opportunity to take complete control, suspends elections “for the duration of the crisis”. The Army is fully mobilized and deployed throughout the country to aid in keeping law and order. Local PRI bosses take this opportunity to settle scores against rivals, using the police and the Army as their enforcers. This, combined with the very unequal distribution of relief (covered in my previous posts regarding Mexico), provokes massive unrest throughout the country.
By April, the government realizes that they need something to distract the people from the situation at home. The problem at the border seems to offer just what the doctor ordered. A little adventure to grab some American territory, followed by negotiations that would return some of Mexico’s previous territory to Mexico, would get the country behind the PRI.
The nuclear question requires a bit of attention. There are a couple of possibilities, it seems to me. The first is that the senior PRI leadership doesn’t believe early 1998 that the US will go nuclear on them. The US has a no-first-use policy, after all. Perhaps the leadership convinces each other that the US would never go nuclear over what amounts to a border squabble. Also, they may come to believe that the US can no longer make nuclear attacks against Mexico. Finally, the Soviets may make a nuclear guarantee they have no intention of honoring. For the Soviets, an American nuclear attack on Mexico is a win-win scenario. The Soviets are hardly going to put any of their own national assets at additional risk by retaliating against the US for strikes against Mexico, but the Mexicans don’t need to be told this. We know that the Soviets develop fraternal relations with Mexico because Division Cuba is brought to the mainland.
The US responds to the invasion with a very limited nuclear strike on Mexico. A high-altitude weapon blankets the country with EMP. A handful of low-yield nukes hit major transportation hubs in northern Mexico, air bases, and the senior leadership posts (civilian government, military) in Mexico City. Maybe a couple more take out the main Navy bases, too.
PAN and other groups, already being actively suppressed, are unable to act effectively until 2000. Thus in many ways the Second Mexican Civil War begins in 1998, but it doesn’t actually burst into flame until 2000.
The above offers some interesting possibilities. PAN and other folks fleeing the situation in Mexico may end up on the American side of the lines. This could start as early as 1998. In Arizona, these folks could offer very useful intelligence about what is going on in Mexico. Fort Huachuca could soften the JCS enmity by passing on the intelligence that arrives in Arizona. PAN folks could initiate clandestine cooperation with Huachuca. This would greatly aid American efforts to conduct raids, etc. into Mexico. A useful spy ring could be built using PAN agents who are interested in defeating troops loyal to PRI in northern Mexico, ending hostilities with the US, and taking control of Mexico.
In relation to the survival of Fort Huachuca in the face of a much more muscular Mexican Army, the logic remains the same as before: Arizona simply isn’t a priority in 1998 and 1999. The prizes are in California and Texas. This is where the armor is going to go. Also, if the Second Mexican Civil War is smoldering throughout 1998 and 1999 before bursting into flames in 2000, then the Army is going to have need of its fighting vehicles at home to run down malcontents. Finally, the tanks Turboswede lists are on the lighter side. The upgraded Shermans are vulnerable to every anti-tank weapon fielded by the Americans. The TAB-30, though more survivable, still will be vulnerable to American ATGM and the guns of both M1 and M60 series tanks. This is not to say that the Mexican Army won’t have success; it is to say that in head-to-head encounters with modern American equipment, the Mexicans are going to suffer heavy losses. However, since Sixth US Army and Fifth US Army are lacking in tanks, this problem isn’t a deal-breaker for the Mexicans. Again, we may have a better explanation for the stalemate that develops at the end of the 1998 campaign season. The idea of diverting armor to a secondary front like Arizona would seem ridiculous if the goal of the fighting is either to secure resources in California or, by threatening them, to force the Americans to come to terms.
Webstral
|