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Old 06-22-2009, 07:53 AM
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Jason Weiser Jason Weiser is offline
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Targan, Rae;
We've had many of these discussions of this very nature. And to be sure, the Red Army is no pushover by any means. But let's keep in mind a few factors:

1. This is not the "Ivan's decided to take a Sunday Drive to the Rhine" scenario. Matter of fact, she's been in a ruinous war in China for the last year or so before NATO gets involved and it's making Afghanistan look like a live-fire exercise. Whole divisions are being wiped out, war stocks are being dipped into, and with Web's timeline (which is the basis for a lot of our work), he has a lot of that stock being given out to the Third World. So, Ivan doesn't have AS much to work with. It's not a significant dent, but it's there. Most of the breakdown for Ivan between 1995 and 1997 is logistical, (never a Soviet strong suit) as for example, the whole of the Soviet endeavor in China is being resupplied one of three ways:
  • The BAM railway
  • The Trans-Siberian railway
  • By sea through the arctic.

All of these are hideously vulnerable. In the west, once the USAF and RAF enter the fray, I'd say Air Superiority, if not local air dominance at times, is a given..The SAF is tired from the op tempo in China and has according to canon, stripped the western military districts for aircraft to support the effort in China. Wanna guess what happens after the SAF and Warpac airfields are dealt with? Interdiction round the clock.

2. The Soviet Army is tired. Alluding to point 1, the casualty rate in China has been nothing short of horrendous. Whole divisions are gone and the Soviets are trying to run a war through two railways each a single track in either direction. In the West, they're down a Combined Arms Army and several Air Armies (see point 1). China is a drain on the Soviets, one they cannot win short of use of WMD, which they resort to in July of 1997. Only then does China collapse.

3. Does this mean we have underestimated the Soviets? I don't think so. But simple comparisons using the aforementioned "traditional scenario" will not work in all cases. The conflict is wider, and certainly not on anything approaching the terms the Soviet Union would prefer. By the time November of 1997 rolls around, she is facing complete economic collapse, and the military may still lose in the west even with the use of tactical nuclear weapons if the new wave of American forces is allowed to arrive in theater. There is no Soviet navy to interdict the convoys anymore, the Soviet Long Range aviation forces would be slaughtered in any conventional bombing campaign against North America...Thus, the escalation to strategic attacks against the US is almost a foregone conclusion.

As for equipment, we've taken quite a few approaches in that regard, but I'll let Chico handle that as he's been handling most of the "crunchier" factors.
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