Great analysis, castlebravo92. Or may I say, bravo?
Another factor that might help the Mexican invaders is tensions between Anglo-American and Mexican-American communities, especially if New America propaganda has begun to take hold in the Southwest. This might drive some 1st or 2nd gen Mexican-Americans who would have otherwise remained loyal to the USA into the arms of the invaders. In other words, stoked fears of a Mexican fifth column result in the emergence of a Mexican fifth column.
I've also posited an alliance of sorts between the Mexican military and narco gangs operating in the USA in the lead-up to the invasion. The latter could provide intel before the invasion and undertake sabotage and assassination ops during.
Re the nuking of Mexican refineries, does
anyone know who's responsible? I remember that question being debated here. I'm not very familiar with CONUS cannon, having focused primarily on Europe and Korea during the length of my fandom. IIRC, canon doesn't answer this question definitively, but I could be wrong.
If the Soviets did indeed nuke the Mexican refineries, one possible explanation is that, for whatever reasons, pre-war, Mexico had better relations with the USSR than with its northern neighbor and were predisposed to suspect American perfidy when the strikes occur. This could be due to a number of factors- trade disagreements between Mexico and the USA (is NAFTA part of the T2kU?); tensions resulting from the escalating Drug War; harsh measures taken to stem illegal immigration. This tension would help the Soviets pull off a brilliant
Maskirovka, convincing the Mexican gov't that the USA was behind nuclear strikes on Mexican refineries. In all likelihood, the KGB was feeding the Mexican gov't and military intel suggesting that the US was planning to nuke Mexican refineries well
before the attacks occurred. So, when it happened, the
fait accompli had already been established (and confirmation bias is a powerful thing).
The Soviets would therefore have two motives for nuking the Mexican refineries. One, deprive the USA of Mexican oil and two, prompt the Mexicans to retaliate against USA.
It wouldn't be the first time a European power tried to foment conflict between Mexico and the USA. The Germans failed to sway the Mexican gov't with the Zimmerman Telegram c.1917, but maybe the Soviets succeed with the "Fisherovich Fax" in 1998.
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