[Tegyrius]

I do like this. It's an interesting little corner of the world, and a theatre of the European conflict that has not been well-explored in previous canon. The East Europe Sourcebook gives Romania only 1.5 pages of material, not counting the obligatory and rarely-useful OOBs.

If we're working off the 1e history (because, really, why wouldn't we?), it looks like Turkey was the first NATO member to support Romania.

Originally Posted by 1996

The first nation to rally to Romania's aid was her neighbor, Jugoslavia. Within 24 hours, three divisions and five brigades crossed into Romania and two days later were at the front under Romanian command. NATO responded shortly thereafter with the offer of full membership in the security organization to both nations, which they accepted. More concrete assistance took the form of the Turkish 1st Army, which launched its offensive against a thin Bulgarian covering force in Thrace on Christmas Eve.

Then NATO tried to throw some logistical aid to the Turks, with mixed results:

Originally Posted by 1997

The best Soviet troops were shipped further south to Bulgaria, and by May had managed to halt the Turkish drive. As Greek pressure on the Turkish left flank in Thrace built, unit after Turkish unit was shifted to face the Greeks. It became clear that, without aid, the Turkish Army would have to fall back or be defeated.

On June 27th, a NATO convoy of fast transports and cargo ships, accompanied by a strong covering force, attempted the run to the Turkish port of Izmir with badly-needed ammunition and equipment. Light fleet elements of the Greek navy intercepted the convoy and, in a confused night action off Izmir, inflicted substantial losses and escaped virtually unharmed. Two days later NATO retaliated with air strikes against Greek naval bases. On July 1st, Greece declared war against the NATO nations, and Italy, in compliance with her treaty obligations, followed suit on the 2nd.

So we have a definite date on which Italy would have expelled or attacked any remaining NATO forces within its borders - though they'd already withdrawn from NATO around mid-December 1996, so the expulsion was probably already well under way, if not complete.

The timeline actually works out rather well for you. Italy withdrew from NATO in mid-December and Romania accepted the NATO membership offer sometime between 21 and 31 December 1996, so the 173rd would have deployed to Romania as soon as NATO could establish air superiority for its movement. With the shortest route being across Yugoslavia, which also had accepted NATO membership, this would be more an issue of securing a corridor than complete theatre SEAD. The 173rd wouldn't be in country before the Soviet invasion (unless NATO was engaged in skulduggery to exceed the East German defection), but they could get there pretty darn quick thereafter.

Unfortunately, things didn't work out so well for Turkey anyway - the NATO resupply effort wasn't sufficient to hold the Turks together:

Originally Posted by 1997

The Soviet and Bulgarian forces in Thrace also began a major offensive against the Turks in September. The one-sided use of tactical nuclear weapons broke the stalemate, and by month's end Bulgarian tank brigades were racing toward Istanbul... At the same time, the limited use of tactical nuclear weapons, the increasing numbers of Soviet reserves, and the withdrawal of the Jugoslavians caused the Romanian front to collapse. As Warsaw Pact columns swept through both countries, isolated military units withdrew into the mountains and began to wage a guerilla war.

So your window for sending additional NATO forces to back up the 173rd is... oh, call it February to September 1997.

- C.