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Old 03-06-2022, 01:36 PM
Bestbrian Bestbrian is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Raellus View Post

What I'm wondering right now is what impact the refugee crisis (1.5m and counting) is going to have on EU/NATO calculus, both short and long term. Could a continuing flood of Ukrainian DPs force NATO to intervene militarily? It's unlikely, but what could happen if refugee support systems start to buckle? In the long term, if/when Russia conquers Ukraine, millions of Ukrainian refugees residing in multiple countries right next door could help sustain a very lengthy insurgency. This could cause all sorts of political and diplomatic issues between Russia and the host countries which could, again, lead to an expansion of the war.

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This is going to turn into a very active and very large insurgency actively supported by the world community and led by an extremely ticked off diaspora. I'm curious to see to what extent this spreads to Belarus. The ruling party there is only in power at the point of Russian bayonets. I could very well see a Belarus insurgency springing up (actively armed and supported by the one in Ukraine).
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