[chico20854]

December 12, 1997

Nothing in canon for today.

(except Challenge Magazine states that the first nuclear attacks on Canada, in the Toronto area, occurred today. That conflicts with Boomer, which states that Barrikada fired missiles on Canada in late November!)

The Naval Security Group at Galeta Island in Panama picks up intelligence indicating that Venezuela is going to officially join the war on the Soviet side. Hugo Chavez is convinced the US is on its last legs and he wants to grab his share of the spoils.

President Munson is briefed on the situation and that the entry of Venezuela with her modern navy, air force and army on the Soviet side, given the damage inflicted in the TDM, would completely unbalance the situation in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico and cut the vital shipping lanes thru the Panama Canal. “Let’s teach this little Mussolini a lesson!” is his immediate response, ordering the release of nuclear weapons to neutralize Venezuela’s military and deny her refineries to the Soviets.

Webstral detailed the strikes on the San Francisco area refineries:

Four MIRVs are fired at them, all from a single SS-17 ICBM from the 10th Guards Missile Division from Kostroma. The MIRV targeted at Richmond fails, and Soviet bomb damage assessment (a satellite passing by a few hours later) notes that the refinery is intact. The Strategic Rocket Forces fire a second missile, a old SS-11 that, while inaccurate, mounts a single 1.3 MT warhead.

The three .5 Mt strikes against Benicia, Martinez, and Avon are overkill for these targets. The strike on Martinez starts catastrophic fires at Benicia and Avon. Still, the Soviets like to be thorough. It's just blind luck that the one refinery physically separated from the others was missed while the overlapping attacks all succeeded.

The Soviets follow up the failed attack on Richmond with an ICBM with a single warhead. The launch vehicle selected is less accurate than more modern platforms. Whoever makes the decision to use the ICBM with a single warhead reasons that the higher yield of the warhead will compensate for the greater CEP.

The warhead is deliberately off-target. The Soviet strike is an airburst centered 7 km north-northwest of the center of the refinery complex, including the complex in the 5 psi ring as well as the thermal radiation ring, causing fires that destroy the complex. Richmond and San Pablo are doomed, but Oakland and San Francisco are far enough away that they are not obviously targets of the attack. No one is going across the Richmond Bridge anytime soon. Even though the bridge stays up, Richmond is completely destroyed. Burning tanks of fuel melt the roadway at the eastern end of the bridge and damage the concrete. There is no convenient bypass that also hasn’t been severely affected by the destruction of Richmond.

The first strikes at Benicia, Martinez, and Avon cause tremendous damage throughout central Contra Contra County and southwestern Solano County. Highly accurate strikes by the first three reentry vehicles wipe out the refineries and associated facilities at these three locations. Firestorms quickly engulf Concord and Walnut Creek to the south, Port Chicago to the east, Port Costa and Crockett to the west, and Vallejo to the northwest. Topography and the very wet El Nino winter of ’97-’98 serve to limit the damage compared to the devastation that reduces greater Los Angeles to ashes and rubble. While towns nearest the strikes suffer tremendous damage, the hills and marshes separating clusters of towns in Contra Costa and Solano Counties serve as effective fire breaks.

The strike at Richmond is particularly devastating due to the high population density of western Contra Costa County. Firestorms rage throughout Richmond, San Pablo, and the adjoining municipalities. By the time they have run their course, everything north of University Avenue in Berkeley has been consumed by fire. A virtually unbroken heap of smoldering ruin characterizes the Contra County shoreline from the western edge of Pittsburg, west through Martinez and inland to include almost the entire urban area in the valleys occupied by Concord, Walnut Creek, and Clayton; through the smaller towns lining the Carquinez Strait, along the southeastern shore of San Pablo Bay, and throughout the entire flat and densely developed area between the hills and the shore of greater San Francisco Bay south to Berkeley. On the Solano side of the Bay, Benicia has been annihilated, while Vallejo has been burned to the ground.

Seen in a larger context, these strikes virtually paralyze the San Francisco Bay Area and its 8.5 million inhabitants. Direct loss of life is significant but not overwhelming - less than 1 million. Loss of fuel for transportation, damage to the electrical grid, and the breakdown of order cause far more casualties over the next 2 years. Interstate 80, linking Sacramento with Oakland and San Francisco, is impassible through sections of Vallejo and virtually all of San Pablo, Richmond, El Cerrito, Albany, and much of Berkeley

Elsewhere,

The Freedom ship Trenton Freedom is delivered, having been at sea when the Galveston, Texas area was hit.

The last operating TV network, NBC, leaves New York City.

The Bakersfield DA travels to Sacramento, escorted by two patrol cars of heavily armed sheriff's deputies, to meet with state officials about the death squad within the 5th California Brigade.

At a US Army field depot in Waren, East Germany (a former Soviet missile base), three US Army deserters are arrested by guards as they attempt to enter the depot and secure fuel, ammunition and food by masquerading as resupply detachment for a III Corps unit. Under interrogation by MPs the three soldiers reveal that their attempt was directed by the leadership of their group of deserters, all former quartermaster soldiers, known as Fifth Squad. (CID investigators in Virginia had, they thought, broke the group up at Fort Lee, Virginia over the summer).

The Canadian Navy commissions its last warship of the war, the patrol-minesweeper Yellowknife, in Halifax, Nova Scotia. The ship is pressed into service performing local security and relief duties.