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Originally Posted by Raellus
Interesting musings, as always, Chalkline.
I imagine those plans would fall apart relatively quickly. Many wartime exigencies would interfere with any large scale civilian evac- the use of roads by friendly military units (either heading to or from the front), enemy interdiction by means of airstrikes, long-range artillery, battlefield tactical missiles (with conventional warheads, initially), and or area denial munitions.
Also, I reckon it's likely that resources allocated for evacuations, on paper, would be quickly redirected to service military needs once war breaks out- especially if it doesn't start off so well for the Polish army. No plan survives contact with the enemy.
Lastly, when enemy attackers advance more quickly than expected, the resulting disruption, even carnage, can be severe. This happened to German civilians on both fronts in the final months of WW2. In East Prussia, especially, there are scores of documented reports of T34s machinegunning and even running over columns of civilian evacuees, and Soviet artillery mercilessly shelling same. Sometimes, the identity of the evacuees was unknown to the attacking force- the Germans used the same trains to move troops and civilians back and forth between the front and rear areas- but others it was abundantly clear. This was payback for the way the rampant German military treated civilians in Soviet territory (although this does not justify Soviet vengeance measures, it does explain why they were so callous and widespread).
Lastly, in a country the size of Poland, there's only so many places displaced civilians can go, and really no place that is not within reach of the enemy.
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Really, it was never going to work as you said as modern warfare is just too fast. As we've seen with recent conflicts it's really hard to tell apart a civilian convoy escaping or some logistical element removing vital infrastructure. It should be remembered that due to the hostile climate in winter Russian troops move in buses or van-trucks that are difficult to tell apart from civilian elements. There was no satellites, tasking is very much on a
"I just saw it, should I shoot it? By the way, everyone's shooting at me so make it quick" situation.
This does give the GM a good way of depopulating areas if they don't want the players inadvertently shooting civilians and the upset this causes. In my games an encounter roll doesn't show you the enemy it just shows the presence of the enemy. I've had whole firefights with players just shooting at muzzle flashes and the enemy doing the same. In situations like this the GM might not want the guy on the Mk19 encountering furtive civvies in the bushes unless he's going for hard pathos.
Those camps should be found on occasion abandoned, reoccupied by some group or even never able to move and simply stranded. I think the civilian element and their role in the game is really underexamined. My players hated the 12th Dresdens in Krakow before they even met them because they encountered the starving refugees they'd excluded from the city as 'unwanted mouths' in camps outside the perimeter.