[Raellus]

This post assumes a Soviet invasion of Sweden in mind-1997 of the v1 timeline, in keeping with the outline I posted earlier.

It's hard to imagine a Soviet amphibious/airborne invasion of Sweden succeeding without first significantly attriting the Swedish air force. This would be quite the challenge for the Soviet military in mid-1997 of the v1 timeline. The Swedish air force routinely dispersed its combat aircraft, making use of paved roadways as ersatz airstrips. The Viggen and Grippen were designed with STOL capability with this in mind.

If the USSR launched its invasion of Sweden early in the war, when it had a huge numerical advantage in combat aircraft, that would be one thing. But by mid-1997, this advantage would have narrowed to a much tighter margin. The Soviets would be risking losing the remainder of their air forces in NW Europe in a major battle with the pristine Swedish air force. The only way I can see a Soviet invasion of Sweden working in mid-1997 (I don't see it having a chance at success any later than that) is by catching the Swedes by surprise with a liberal dose of nuclear strikes. The Swedes' doctrine of dispersal of forces would make even nuclear attacks less effective. I still see the invaders suffering heavy losses during the landings.

Swedish coastal defenses are nothing to sniff at, but the Soviets would only need to worry about threats in the landing area. Fixed coastal batteries would be mapped out ahead of time. As far as land-based coastal defenses, mobile SSM launchers, IMHO, would be the biggest threat to an amphibious invasion force.

Again, surprise would be key to Soviet success. Apparently, it would take a few days for the Swedish military and Home Guard to mobilize in the event of an unexpected attack. If the Soviets could disrupt that scale further, it would buy time for their beachheads and airheads to consolidate. A nuclear attack, even using relatively small yield tactical warheads in widely dispersed precision attacks, would definitely add to panic and confusion and slow Sweden's military deployment. In v4, the Swedish government quits Stockholm pretty early on. The looming specter of a nuclear decapitation strike would definitely accomplish that.

I've been considering how best to employ Spetsnaz in the opening phase of the invasion. If a Spetsnaz team could somehow keep a Viggen squadron from getting off the ground and seize control of the airbase where it's stationed, that would be ideal (from a Soviet POV). An intact airfield would help speed up air landings and even allow the Soviets to station their own supporting combat aircraft and helis in-country.

Using Spetsnaz always risks throwing away the element of surprise if they're detected prior to taking action (remember the traffic accident in Red Storm Rising?). Trying to accomplish too much by giving a team multiple objectives or trying to insert more than one or two teams prior to the invasion increases the odds of tipping off the defenders that something bigger is afoot. Can anyone think of a better use for Spetsnaz than seizing an airfield? An alternative that comes immediately to mind is attempting to assassinate the civilian leadership of the country, but if said is fleeing the capital in the wake of nuclear strikes, that seems almost redundant.

Another question is at what point and in what capacity would the Soviets seek to employ Swedish fifth columnists? If I understand correctly, there were some relatively small but very committed Swedish socialist/communists groups operating in Sweden during the Cold War.

In terms of objectives, Gotland was pretty well defended during the Cold War. Do you think the Soviets would try to seize it in the opening phase of the invasion, perhaps to use as a kind of springboard for further attacks on the mainland, and to defend the left "flank" of invasion sea lanes, or would they circumvent it and leave it to wither on the vine? It seems like v4 takes the latter approach given the geographical description/rumor in the ref's manual. I tend to think that the Soviets wouldn't want to disperse their manpower, so it makes a bit more sense operationally to leave it be, initially at least, or even nuke the Swedish military base there and then mop up the survivors at a later date.

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