Good calls on Soviet use of local assets (i.e. Swedish communists), Admiral. Thanks for reminding me about naval Spetnaz; I feel silly for forgetting about them.
Re timing, that is correct. As I write this, I don't have access to the v1 timeline but, IIRC, the Soviets don't launch a counteroffensive in Norway-Finland. The Finns stop NATO's northern drive into Soviet territory without Soviet assistance. I envision the invasion of Sweden taking place
after NATO troops in Poland have been pushed back closer to the German border, so probably late summer, 1997 (I imagine one would try to avoid major combat ops once the days get shorter/colder). So, the Soviets wouldn't have to run three major offensive concurrently (at that stage in the war, I doubt they'd be capable to doing so)- they'd be running two operations consecutively.
I was thinking about this last night and I figure another
casus belli for Moscow would be Soviet troops cut off in northern Norway by the NATO offensive "escaping" encirclement by crossing the border into neutral Sweden. Sweden interns them and refuses to repatriate them until hostilities have ended. I would use this in addition to the other strategic objective of outflanking NATO forces in the north. It also makes sense that the best of Sweden's active duty military forces would be oriented north, keeping an eye on the fighting up there between NATO and the Soviet Union/Finland, thereby leaving the southeastern region more vulnerable to a surprise Soviet invasion.
Also, bigger picture, strategically, invading Sweden poses a threat to Norway and Denmark, forcing NATO to weaken its forces in central Europe to shore up the northern front. If the net result would be the same, the Soviets might prefer to take advantage of a "soft" Sweden than continue bludgeoning away at strong NATO forces in Poland in a war of attrition.
I would suggest that NATO sends forces to Sweden in late summer, 1997. I'd go with 2nd MarDiv, since that's what v4 uses. If that messes up your Poland c.2000, then you could use a reactivated Marine Division (there were 6 in WW2; IIRC, there are only 3-4 identified in T2k canon). I'd also throw in some Danish and Canadian troops to make it interesting. As for PACT forces, v4 has 1 Soviet Air Assault division, 1 Marine Infantry Brigade, and 2 Motor Rifles divisions. That seems about right to me. I'd include the Polish marine regiment as well, to spice things up and make it a true PACT endeavor.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ursus Maior
With respect to Gotland, I would assume the Soviets would want to eliminate the Rb 15 naval strike missiles stationed there. But other than that, Gotland is only relevant, if the Baltic Fleet wishes to escape into the North Sea and the Atlantic. That would have been a major goal for the Soviets in a war against NATO, but it's not necessary for an attack on Sweden. So it all depends when the USSR goes to war with Sweden. I'd assume that happens after war with NATO starts.
Under these cicumstances I see two options: air-strikes against the missile sites and then containing the threat by jamming and interdicting air-fields. The other option is glassing the site over with tactical nuclear weapons. The island of Gotland itself is not worth an invasion, to my opinion. That would only end in a Soviet version of the US invasion of Okinawa. And while the end might be clear from the start, this invasion would easily eat up a corps-sized amphibious force plus air and naval assets. Such an operation would need at minimum a month worth of time and these are resources the Soviets would not have in case of an all-out war along the Central and Northern front from the Arctic Circle to Bavaria—and beyond, if one sticks to the original T2K timeline.
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I do see Gotland has possessing strategic value for the Soviets. SAM and SSM batteries, and aircraft based there could aid in maintaining Soviet air and sea supremacy in the eastern Baltic, and would held secure the sea and air lanes between Soviet forces operating in SE Sweden and the Motherland. That said, I agree with you that capturing the island would be a significant undertaking, and one the Soviets could not pursue concurrently with landings in SE Sweden. I think your description of how the Soviets would deal with Gotland instead is a more manageable/plausible approach.
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