I would think that the two most likely flashpoints would be an East Germany attempt to reunify with the West - and given the losses they took in the war with China that makes complete sense to me as to what the V1 flashpoint would be
if I had to pick a second one I would say a Soviet crushing of Solidarity where the Polish military decides to fight back. That could lead to a NATO ultimatum where people like West Germany, the US, the UK and others say there will be no more Hungary's and Czechoslovakian crushed revolts - that this time they are making a stand - figuring the Soviets are too weak to fight two wars at the same time
and then off we go to the races
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