Quote:
Originally Posted by Heffe
There's a solid nighttime video of the sinking available online for anyone interested in seeing it. It appears as though the naval drone fires a forward facing rocket at the Sergey Kotov just prior to impact, opening up the hull prior to its own impact - it's very impressive. It also seems that the Sergey Kotov was one of the Russian craft in the Black Sea capable of launching Kalibr cruise missiles. A worthwhile target.
I keep reflecting on how drones are radically changing the face of warfare in future engagements. I'm sure every branch of the US and European militaries right now are deeply examining the new risks to their own equipment as those risks are being put in the limelight in Ukraine. It also presents some wild opportunities for new equipment, and the militaries that are able to properly capitalize on the new technologies are going to have a decided edge in future conflicts. As but one example, naval drones likely have a more limited capacity at the moment due to radio waves being unable to penetrate as far under the water. I'm sure folks are already looking at implementing AI onto new naval drones that would allow them to be more of a "launch and forget" system, which would remove the need for radio guidance entirely.
|
IMHO, commoditized drone tech represents a true "revolution in military affairs."
The cost/benefit ratio is completely out of whack with other weapons platforms. You basically have, roughly speaking $200 to $10k platforms (from the grenade dropping hobby FPV drones to the longer range military suicide drones with thermal and semi-autonomous capabilities) able take out material and personnel much more cost effectively than almost any other option.
For example, the M982 Excalibur 155mm guided projectile costs $68,000 to $250k per round. A JDAM kit $30k - but has to be deployed via a $30 million+ piece of equipment, and a non-permissive environment raises the cost of delivery significantly.
But drones excel in non-permissive environments because they are cheap, the AAA counter-measures are themselves ideal high priority targets for the drones, and no one has really come up with a great strategy to deal with them yet in a near-peer contest like in the Ukraine (in Gaza, Hamas basically just ran out of drones rather than Israel completely nullifying them tactically). Missiles aren't cost effective, and no one has apparently deployed a gun system that works all that great.
The net net is you have a situation where maneuver forces are extremely vulnerable, infantry forces are extremely vulnerable, and Russia's strategy of deploying poorly trained and equipped Mobiks to soak up drones may actually not be the worst strategy out there. Better, from a Russian point of view, to lose a conscript with an AK-74 and some recycled fatigues and boots, than a T-90.