Quote:
Originally Posted by Raellus
Agreed. Your example cuts both ways, though, when it comes to offensive operations. The Russians have just captured Soledar after weeks of heavy fighting. Can the Ukrainians afford to sustain a 3:1 casualty ratio to retake it?
And Ukraine is running out of ammunition too, in particular for its artillery. Although local production has recently ramped up, it can't keep up with demand. Recent reports are that artillery fires have diminished from both sides. NATO is having a difficult time providing enough fresh shells and rockets to keep up with Ukrainian expenditures. They've been outsourcing resupply to "unaligned" countries (like Pakistan), but that supply is going to dry up soon as well.
-
|
All good points. Regarding Soledar, my understanding is that Wagner is essentially throwing bodies at the town in the interest of proving that Wagner is superior than the MOD. With vehicle kill counts on the Russian side being somewhat stagnant, that means Russian infantry losses have been absolutely atrocious. To your point though, maybe they really can absorb such tremendous losses. At least for now.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Raellus
I hope that turns out to be the case. The UAF is probably going to have to repel a large-scale Russian offensive in the spring before it can go over to the offensive again. That's what Ukrainian intel is saying, at least. There's growing concern that said offensive will include another lunge at Kiev out of Belarus. There're also rumblings that the Belarussian military might be taking part in same. If that were to happen, the strategic calculus of Ukraine and NATO is going to have to change.
-
|
Belarus is a really interesting scenario. You have to know Luka is looking at NATO's military build up on his border, and he doesn't have the nukes to scare NATO off, despite his closeness to Russia. NATO's calculus is going to be "Can we take out Belarus without triggering Russia's nukes?" It'll be a really dangerous game if Belarus ends up sending troops across the border. The Belarussian people as well, from what I understand, aren't quite as interested in the war as Russia's, and they're arguably more eager to see Luka be ousted.