Some things from my own recollections:
1. For those that remember, Tchaikovsky did a real number on the domestic Chinese arms industry, or at least we said it did in our DCWG write-ups. The Chinese AF had taken a beating in '95 and the winter of '95-'96 was probably no different, as the Chinese may be buying western aircraft..but they gotta learn how to fly them..in the meanwhile, Western volunteers in F-4s and F-20s fill in the gap..ala the Flying Tigers.
2. The situation improves as Western aid and trainers arrive beginning in early '96, what really is the big "game-changer" for the Chinese is gobs and gobs of ATGM like Tank Breaker and the latest version of TOW. Yes, it's risky from a security POV, but you can take the money and plow it into product improvements that will keep us ahead of the Soviets. It's a lot easier to train ATGM gunners in light infantry units..than it is to train 'mech infantry. That's not to say those units aren't being formed...
3. The Soviet Spring Offensive in '96 works something like this (barebones). The Soviets launch an offensive to envelop and destroy the major Chinese grouping around Shenyang and force the Chinese to the table on Soviet terms. They have sent one Army East from GSFG (We said 20th Guards, but you can pick whatever works for you), add in some East Germans probably backing them up (in fact, making the initial penetration) and you have the shape of the attempted Soviet offensive...
4. It all winds up a dog's breakfast. The re-equipped Chinese light infantry is well, everywhere. Sure the Soviets and East Germans stack them like firewood, but there are always more..with more ATGM..and it works really well against Soviet reactive armor as it's got tandem warheads and all the trimmings..Tank Breaker, in fact, gets an evil reputation here.
5. After all that goes to hell for the Soviets, and the pincers stall ala the Germans at Kursk, a dozen of the Chinese "New Model" Brigades, organized with Western equipment and along Western lines, counterattack, and beat the snot out of the Soviets, and fearing a replay of Red Willow, they fight a confused, broken backed withdrawal, where the East Germans get left high and dry..and are forced to surrender en masse.
That was the general shape of where we were going with this.
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