One oft-overlooked fact was that the Japanese also had 3000 aircraft remaining - most outdated, or in poor condition - to sortie against the invasion fleet. This amounted to, by US estimates, two to three destroyed carriers of the line (destroyed as in, totally sunk) plus a lot of other smaller support ships. That's assuming CAP and perimeter defense ships worked entirely as planned.
The invasion also called for the softening up of enemy positions with atom bombs, so even more would've been used. And US troops would've marched straight into the fallout zones.
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