Thread: Twilight 2020
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Old 01-04-2019, 01:48 AM
RN7 RN7 is offline
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I agree with some of this Raellus but I think you are being too critical of US capabilities.

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Originally Posted by Raellus View Post
First off, let's look at Russian and Chinese capabilities.

Just a few years ago, Russia annexed the Crimea, and they recently blockaded the port of Mairupol, impounded Ukrainian naval vessels, and shut Ukrainian traffic out of the Sea of Azov. NATO didn't/won't do anything about it. If Ukraine can't extinguish a long-running ethnic Russian separatist insurgency (which benefits from thinly-veiled Russian military support), how could it stop a full-scale Russian invasion without direct NATO intervention?
The Ukraine could do little to stop a Russian advance on their territory, they are massively outgunned. NATO could do little to aid them and wouldn't as they are not part of NATO.

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Originally Posted by Raellus View Post
Russia could retake the Baltic States in a matter of a few weeks and there's not much NATO could do to stop it. Estonia has no air force. The U.S. simply doesn't have enough pre-positioned heavy combat units in Europe to respond quickly enough and with adequate force, to turn back a Russian invasion. This isn't just some amateur military-buff's assessment- US military think-tanks have concluded as much.
Russia could take the Baltic States in a week as Estonia, Latvia or Lithuania have tiny and lightly armed militaries. NATO could do nothing to stop Russia doing it either outside air and naval attacks, although if NATO began mustering large land forces in Germany or Poland the Russians would likely retreat back to their border with the Baltics. They don't want to tangle with NATO and US forces beyond their own sphere of influence as they will lose.

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Originally Posted by Raellus View Post
So that's where T2020 could start. The Baltic. Russian retakes Estonia and Latvia and NATO takes a belated stand on the Lithuania side of the Poland-Lithuanian border. Boom! WWIII. With the U.S. embroiled in a large-scale conventional war in the Baltics, China makes its play for Taiwan (and/or North Korea launches a second war of reunification) or, if that's too bold for your tastes, the Spratly Islands, attacking Vietnamese and Filipino navy vessels that arrive to assert their respective territorial claims.
Its plausible, but the Middle East is also very dangerous at the moment with ISIS on the retreat but still dangerous, the Arabs fighting proxy wars with each other and Iran and Russia causing trouble. Israel and Turkey could also be dragged into it.

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Originally Posted by Raellus View Post
The Chinese navy is growing faster than the USN. The USN is aging and it's newest [littoral combat] vessels have been beset by all sorts of mechanical and systems and structural problems. The Chinese have a large and formidable coastal defense force and are rapidly developing a capable blue water navy. Any naval war fought in either/both of the China Seas will mean that the Chinese have interior lines of supply and access to numerous land-based aircraft. Their new anti-carrier ballistic missile could be a game-changer. In a similar vein, the Russians are rolling out hypersonic SSM/ASMs. Meanwhile, the USN still relies on the 40-year old Harpoon ASM.
China has greatly expanded its naval forces over the past 20 years. On paper its looks formidable, but there are flaws to their naval expansion. Chinese littoral forces will not come in range of US Navy warships unless the US Navy wants to engage them. US Navy aircraft, submarines and USAF aircraft are capable of picking them off at will from US carriers and land bases in the Pacific without China being able to do much about it. Quite frankly it would be a one sided slaughter if the US went full throttle at them. Also the Chinese cannot rely on the PLAAF to defend their ships close to China as the PLAAF is simply not good enough of an air force in equipment or experience despite the hype from Chinese propaganda. US Navy F/A-18E Super Hornet's and USAF F-22 and F-15E would wipe the floor of them and the Chinese probably know it.

To fully engage the US Navy out in the Pacific the Chinese need aircraft carriers and submarines, and a lot of them. The Chinese carriers are not capable of taking on US Navy carriers for a whole load of reasons, but principly because they don't have naval aircraft to compete with US Navy aircraft and their movement would be tracked by US intelligence resources particularly orbital satellites. US submarines or strike aircraft would blow them out of the water before they got in sight of Taiwan or the Philippines. Chinese submarine are also not a match for US submarines, and are also noisy and easy to track.

The Chinese DF-21D anti-carrier ballistic missiles threat is more an illusion than reality. The Russians tried this in the 1970's, gave up and switched their focus to the Tu-22M Backfire with supersonic nuclear missiles. China needs a powerful OTH radar, recon satellites, recon aircraft and submarines to all work in tandem to track the US carrier and hit it while its standing still about 1,700 miles offshore, and hope that the US carrier is not sailing full steam at 30 knots, and that all the US escorts with multiple anti-ABM missiles and ECM are asleep and that there is no clutter over the area. The OTH radar of questionable capabilities that China has constructed with Russian assistance in the Gobi desert would be vaporised long before the US sends its carriers in range of Chinese forces in wartime.

The Harpoon is an old missile but is still highly capable but it is now being replaced. The Freedom and Independence Class LCS are being fitted with new Norwegian NSM missiles. All US Navy combat aircraft and USAF and Marine aircraft are capable of firing the air launched AGM-84H/K SLAM-ER anti-ship cruise missile. It is an advanced anti-ship missile with a range of 170 miles and is considered the most accurate in US Navy service. The even more advanced AGM-158C LRASM or JASSM is currently entering service with a range of 300 miles, and potentially 1,000 miles, with US Navy aircraft. The AGM-158C can also be ship-launched and will probably be fitted to the Zumwalt Class destroyer and other ships. The Russians have had supersonic cruise missiles since the 1970's, they armed them with nuclear warheads as it was the only way they could attack a US Navy aircraft carrier and destroy it. But if you use a nuclear warhead against US forces you also risk a retaliatory American nuclear strike on you.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Raellus View Post
I've already touched on some US weaknesses above. Here are some more.

The US still has the largest military budget in the world, but instead of investing in new and improved major systems like replacements for its aging Ticonderoga class guided missile cruisers, or M1 MBTs, or F-16s, most of that money is spent to pay for its long-running "War on Terror"- and most of that is for upkeep and maintenance on old, hard-working systems.

The USAF is currently facing a pilot shortage. The F-35 is a highly problematic airframe/avionics platform and there's not enough money in the budget to restart F-22 production. Instead, the USAF is looking at a program to replace it's 40-year old F-15 fleet with a new, upgraded model, the F-15X. The workhorse of the USAF, the F-16 is also getting old (airframes are approaching the end of their serviceable career). Meanwhile, the Chinese air force is steadily growing and modernizing. It's catching up qualitatively too- they're starting production of their own stealth fighter.
The F-35 is a problematic aircraft and is aerodynamically inferior to an F-16 with a GE engine and is dependent on its sensors. But its primarily a BVR fighter and strike platform, and its stealth will give it an edge over any other fighter. The F-22 is aerodynamically superior to any other fighter at the moment and with the F-35 is the only 5th Generation combat jet flying. Only the Su-57 is believed to be in the same class and it is a less powerful aircraft than the F-22 and it is still a prototype, and it is unlikely to be built in great numbers or exported by Russia. The only other fighter that could take on an F-22 at the moment in a BVR or WVR air duel with any confidence of defeating it is a Eurofighter Typhoon Tranche 3, which basically means that the only air force that has a hope of taking on the F-22 is the British RAF. In regards to combating any 5th generation aircraft coming online from Russia or China over the next decade, the US has been designing and developing their 6th Generation F-X since 2012.

The F-15X is in my opinion a good idea as its in the same class as the ex-Soviet Flanker variants which are the main BVR combat aircraft of the Russian, Chinese and many other air forces. An upgraded F-15C with a new airframe, more powerful engines, new sensors and the latest missiles would be a very effective way of countering the proliferation of Flanker variants around at the moment other than building more F-22's which would be a problem in itself as they would need an upgrade themselves which would not be cheap.

As regards to China well they can't build reliable jet engines because they weren't able to steal the technology from America and Britain that is needed to build them. Basically they haven't been able to copy the metallurgical and engineering processes needed, or can they manufacture the crystal nickle-steel that is needed to sustain them for 2,000 hours plus without fail. Chinese jet engines burn out after about 40 hours and fall out of the sky. China uses Russian engines which are not as good as American or British engines but still way better than Chinese ones. Until they manage to build a reliable jet engine I will reserve my opinion of Chinese aircraft.

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Originally Posted by Raellus View Post
Lots of U.S. tanks and IFVs have a lot of hard miles on them, from deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan, with replacements nowhere in sight. Thousands of new-ish MRAPs aren't going to help much in a conventional war against a modern foe like China or Russia.

These threads include links to various articles, mostly about Russian capabilities vis-à-vis the Baltics and NATO, some of which are referenced above:
The US hasn't built any new tanks since the mid-1990's, but with good reason as practically all their M1 tanks have been rebuilt to such an extent they are practically new tanks. They are also fitted with DU armour, which is about the strongest armour around and none have been lost to enemy action by a direct hit in their critical frontal armour. In 2018 the US Army and Marines had 2,831 M1 Abrams in service with another 3,500 held in storage.
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