The Twilight War die off and residual effects from radiation would continue to be casting a demographic shadow on population levels worldwide, but most especially on the main combatant nations. North America would be significantly effected, but not as bad as central/eastern Europe and (most especially, going by the narrative) China.
The collapse of most of the systems associated with industrialized modern civilization and global trade networks would not be an easy bounce back for anyone involved. I agree that most people circa 2100 would be back to working in agriculture or otherwise directly involved in food production. (Re) industrialization to a 1900 level, much less a 2000 (or 1996 or 7 level, if you prefer) would be difficult for a lot of reasons. Energy scarcity being one -- the first industrial revolution and the 20th century in general burned through a lot of the most easily exploited energy resources before pushing on to more remote ones, like Middle Eastern oil.
Even without considering the GDW 2300AD timeline, I think there might be a significant shift towards the southern hemisphere, where the war was less intrusive. Australia and some of the better off South American nations (Chile, Argentina, and Brazil or maybe just a fragment thereof based in the better developed southern part of the country) could all come out of the Twilight War as much more significant players on the world scene.
South Africa might fall in that boat as well, though honestly I assume in a Twilight War scenario South Africa goes apocalypse-level bad pretty fast with the Soviets and Cubans encouraging their clients to do a full court press and the country facing massive internal upheavals when they do. What comes out the other end of that meat grinder . . . who knows?
French hegemony coming out of the war . . . maybe sustainable. A lot of that would, I think, depend on France getting dominant access to Gulf oil and being able to keep it coming back to France. Even there, though, the standard of living compared to the 1990s is going to be way, way down and there's going to be a backflow of urban populations back to agriculture as fuel, parts, etc. rationing and scarcity mean agriculture has to become less mechanized.
How big and how far that umbrella extends is an interesting question -- I can see helping get neighboring nations back on their feet within a French sphere of influence. I'm not sure I see the 2300AD idea of France getting seriously re-engaged with its former African colonies -- I'd think attention would focus hard on establishing relations with energy producing nations or establishing colonies in anarchic areas with pre-war, proven energy resources.
|