[Raellus]

I think the issue of societal breakdown and civil disorder is one that gets exaggerated in both directions. I don't quite buy the sheep, wolves, sheepdogs trope. I don't think the country would descend into Mad Max levels of lawlessness and depredation. On the other hand, I don't think that the Federal Gov't, even with a year or two to prepare, in earnest, for nuclear war, is going to be able to make provisions to shelter, feed, clothe, and provide medical care for tens of millions, if not hundreds of millions, of refugees (i.e. people evacuating potential nuclear target areas or fleeing the vicinity of an actual strike). Even if the Gov't could lay in adequate provisions, once fossil fuels are in short supply (and refineries are the priority target for nuclear attacks, according to v1 & v2 canon lists), it's going to be extremely difficult to get aid to the people that need it (or vice-versa). Millions will go hungry. Hundreds of thousands of refugees will die of starvation, exposure, or communicable diseases like cholera and typhus- maybe not right away, but over the first few years after the TDM, the death toll is going to be catastrophic. This doesn't even take into account victims of nuclear strikes (read Susan Southard's, Nagasaki: Life After Nuclear War) for a thorough description of what it was like to live through a relatively small nuclear bomb attack).

Seriously, aside from farmers and "preppers", how many citizens are going to know how to cope [well] when the lights go out, the water shuts off, gas pumps run dry, and the grocery store shelves are empty? 10%? I think that's a probably a generous estimate.

So, I think it's more likely conditions across the U.S.A. are going to become dire relatively quickly- not Mad Max dire, but pretty dire. I agree with SSC that people today, more reliant on digital aides than even 10 years ago, are going to be much less able to cope than folks could have back when T2K was first written.

Will surviving law enforcement, whether it be military or civilian, be able to cope with the apocalypse? I think the answer is, it will largely depend on a number of factors. To name a few,

Urban v. rural.
Was there a nuclear strike in the region?
Are/were there hostile conventional forces in the region?
Is there a strong military presence in the region?
How prepared and competent is local law enforcement?
Were there significant criminal elements in place before the war started?

So, there's no universal answer to the question, "how bad will it be?" As a GM, it's up to us to look at the above and make decisions about local conditions. It's quite a challenge, but it's a big part of the fun of T2K, IMHO.