[chico20854]

Longer term, Poland is in a rough situation.

Strategically & geographically, its in a tough spot. Its right in between the Germans and the Russians on the Northern European plain, with no natural obstacles of any real use to define natural borders to the east or west.

Poland in 2001 is at best a nation with a strong national identity & pride ruled by dozens of warlords, with every part of the country thoroughly damaged by conventional and nuclear war. The neighbors it is concerned about - the Germans and Russians - are also in bad shape. (The Czechoslovaks to the south, on the other side of the Tatras, and the Swedes from across the Baltic, present no real threat to Poland). French meddling will ensure that Germany remains chaotic and divided, and Germany's damage is almost as great as Poland's. Russia has lost its army, its economy and most of its borderlands.

So it becomes a decades-long race to rebuild, with Poland needing to maintain a rate of recovery sufficient to keep up with the Germans and Russians when they too recover.

In this I think Poland has an advantage. (Not to stereotype, this is based on my experiences in Poland and with my many friends in Poland). Their fierce national pride, history of surviving extreme deprivation (not only the Communist rule and WWII but also having the nation split between Austria, Prussia and Russia from 1796 to 1918) and sense of nationhood should give them a chance.

How do I see Poland recovering? First, NATO and non-Polish Warsaw Pact troops will either leave or get integrated into Polish society in the 2000-2003 timeframe. Warlords will continue to battle for cantonments and resources, which will continue to cause hardship but also kill off the more violent and aggressive elements of society, while simultaneously creating an ever deeper war-weariness in the population. In the period following this, a kind of stability will follow, with several powerful warlords more or less holding a truce, husbanding their strength and willing to rule their fief and not risk losing a war against another warlord. (And by warlord, I really mean independent armed group - it could be a city council, religious leader such as the priest that runs a partisan band in Black Madonna or element of the Polish Free Congress). With time, a sort of confederation emerges, sort of a league of independent city-states. Where Poland's chance for recovery comes in is if a charismatic leader (or with some other way to appeal to the Pole's sense of patriotism, such as the Black Madonna) is able to unite the independent statelets back into the nation of Poland. At first it would be a loose union, but with time it could evolve into a nation-state, perhaps under a king or ruler selected by either the common populace or (more likely IMHO) some sort of council composed of leaders from the various regions.

As for the neighbors, the Germans will have a tough time recovering with French troops on the west bank of the Rhine, and, with time, French efforts to keep Germany divided into competing parts (essentially returning Germany to the pre-Kaiser/1870s status quo). Russia will struggle in chaos for years until a new Tsar (or similar autocrat) arises. Even then the traditional inefficiency of Russia's economy (to a certain extent a direct effect of the massive distances and poor transportation network, requiring central control of scarce economic resources) will mean it will be many years before the Russians can again present a threat to Poland. In many ways, Poland's experience from 1918 to 1939 might be repeated - a united but poor and in many ways weak Poland is able to secure itself, scoring some victories against Russia (Warsaw 1921) and Germany (independence after 120+ years), both of which were suffering extreme chaos as a result of losing WW I. But again, longer term Poland is in a tough position, isolated from external allies and stuck between Germany and Russia.

A less likely option, IMHO, is a resurgence of the Polish-Lithuanian empire. It might help for a few years, especially if the Scandinavians actively support the Balts. Longer term, though, the Baltic republics can't add much in the way of resources or population, at least in terms of being enough to hold off the Russians. (And with Estonia only 75 miles from Leningrad, it might not be any help at all, with the Russians eager to push their borders back and no real natural obstacles to defend).