[sglancy12]

Originally Posted by Targan

All of the South Africans that I personally know in Perth were totally against Apartheid. The ones that moved her during white rule did so because they didn't like the policies of the white government in South Africa. Those that moved here after the fall of white rule did so because of economic and social difficulties which incressed after the fall of white rule, not because they were protesting the end of Apartheid.

I never thought the ones fleeing during Apartheid were immigrating so they could set up little neo-nazi cells in Western Australia. But Australia is a natural place for English speaking European Christians to flee to from South Africa. I mean, its a close to home as they are likely to find in the southern hemisphere. Plus, unlike the UK, USA and Canada, Australia isn't getting nuked. So, I'll write off the big Afrikaaner nukes for land swap. Nevertheless, South Africans (and even white Zimbabweans) would be heading to Australia all through these alternative timeline 1990s.

Originally Posted by Targan

Australia has many energy options. We produce a fair amount of oil and heaps of natural gas and have huge untapped reserves of both. Australia is one of the biggest coal exporters in the world. We also produce huge amounts of sugar cane so alcohol production on a large scale would be easy to get underway.

Interesting... but currently Australia still buys the bulk of it's petroleum from regional sources, correct? Like Indonesia and Brunei? It won't do Australia any good (for a year or so until alternatives can be brought online) if the Indonesians cut off those supplies in a fit of nationalistic fervor. I mean, Australia will suffer a huge energy shortage with fuel rationing, brown outs, and the like, but I take your point that losing access to oil from Bornea clearly won't tumble Australia to the Middle Ages.

Still, I cannot imagine there not being a pro-nuke power faction in Australia after the Twilight War. France might come to Australia and offers to buy their uranium (since France is heavily favoring nuclear power), especially since many of the other sources of Uranium are going to be a mess. The French could easily exchange oil from the Middle East for uranium. In the canon they are sitting on Kuwait. In my version, the US CENTCOM is in Kuwait and the French are in Saudi Arabia.

Following France's example, certain Australian interests might press for the creation of a nuclear power station or stations... but I expect that would be a project that wouldn't see fruition the 2010s. So, it wouldn't really affect Australia's situation at the turn of the Millenium.

Originally Posted by Targan

There are few nations on earth with closer ties than Australia and New Zealand. There is a kind of sibling rivalry between them and New Zealand is politically a fair bit "greener" and left leaning than Australia but basically they will always be there for each other through tick and thin. Any assistance from New Zealand to Australia would be very much overt, not covert. In every major conflict that Australia has been in since the Boer War, New Zealand has been right there with us. The weapons and equipment and training of both militaries is almost 100% compatible. Yes it is true that New Zealand's geographic location protects it from any realistic threats apart from nuking but look at it from New Zealand's point of view - if Australia was ever to fall to an enemy New Zealand would be next. During the Twilight War New Zealand would back Australia 100%.

Point taken. New Zealand's military forces would be actively and openly supporting Australia's (and the rest of the anti-Indonesian alliance's) efforts to keep the Indonesian junta from gaining hegemony over the region. When I amend the time line and gazetteer, I'll be sure to make New Zealand more front and center in the conflict.

So, how much of this help would be in the form of Naval and Air Forces and how much Army forces do you think New Zealand could spare? I'm thinking given the conditions of the Twilight War, even New Zealand would have conscription. But do the conscripts serve at home keeping the country together, or are they send to fight in the Indonesian War? Personally, I think it would be better for morale and maintaining discipline if the conscripts were kept closer to home and the volunteer (and therefore more professional) forces were used to support Australia.

Originally Posted by Targan

I work with a white South African who is a former role playing gamer and is very knowledgeable about military and history matters. I've talked to him many times about the discussions on these forums. He has told me that even if the USSR hadn't fallen Apartheid would not have lasted all that much longer in South Africa, it was simply unsustainable. In my opinion shortly before or during the Twilight War white rule would have ended in South Africa. If it was before the war it might have happened much like it did in RL. If it was during or after the Twilight War my guess is that it would have been brutal and bloody.

I think that's a fair assessment. If apartheid is dismantled before the Twilight War begins (or at least goes nuclear) then South Africa might be the largest organized national governments to continue to operate in Africa, so long as they can avoid committing national suicide by indulging in tribalism or revenge on the white minority population. As the rest of the African continent melts down, everyone is going to rush to the "safety and prosperity" of South Africa, threatening to "swamp the lifeboat." Common cause like that might give the English, the Zulus, the Showa and the Afrikaaners a reason to work together. Of course, in a crisis, people who should work together often turn on each other.

If the apartheid government hangs on too long, the country goes down in a race war that leaves it as wrecked and ruined as the rest of the African continent. White refugees get on the last boats out and try and make it to Australia.

I guess the question is, which scenario is more interesting? I think I like South Africa holding on as a real, functional, post-apartheid republic, that is holding the line against the tide of barbarism spreading out of central Africa.

A. Scott Glancy, President TCCorp, dba Pagan Publishing