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Old 08-30-2009, 04:56 PM
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As a preamble to my reply, I want to acknowledge that as a group we’re a still a bit touchy about the incident a while back involving Chico’s work. I want to acknowledge publicly that I very much appreciate the hard work Chico and the DC Group put in, even if I don’t agree with everything they create. I also want to acknowledge that my previous assumption that we were trying to build a more-or-less cohesive vision of a fleshed-out Twilight: 2000 world was off-base and led to some vigorous disagreements in which I had a hand. I’m now operating under the assumption that what we’re doing here is more of a show-and-tell that is not intended to lead to a cohesive vision among the Board’s members, regardless of however much I might like a cohesive vision.

Quote:
Originally Posted by sglancy12 View Post
Mexico has always harbored a certain amount of resentment against the United States. After all, in 1848 we stole the 1/2 of their country that has all the cities and highways and industry in it. Then after that we have consistently treated Mexico as a source of cheap labor, cheap vacations and cheap vice. Our prosperity is seen as only possible because we made off with their prosperity. So it wouldn't take much propaganda to whip the Mexican population up. Not to mention, when is Mexico ever going to get a better time for some payback against the "Colossus of the North" than after we've been nuked? We're down, the time to put the boot in is before we get back up.
I like your answer to this question. I agree that the causes belli can be whatever the powers-that-be believe will work. The ruling party will need a unifying factor that will supersede internecine strife and make the Mexicans forget that some of them really hate each other. Foreign adventures have been attempted since there were groups of humans to compete over things.

Quote:
Originally Posted by sglancy12 View Post
If America is nuked and Mexico isn't, why are there Mexican's trying to get into America?
I believe the Soviets would nuke Mexico’s oil because the Soviets are arch conservatives. Imagine the situation from the Soviet point of view. The US is full of Mexican-Americans. Suppose that those conniving Yankees find a way to use all of those Mexican-Americans to gain access to Mexico’s oil? Suppose an American-supported coup or revolution in Mexico overturns the nationalist government and replaces that government with a regime far more friendly to the US. The Mexicans who emigrate to the US are the people most likely to want regime change; they were so unhappy with the state of things that they left their native land. There are millions of them in the US. The Soviets’ ability to influence this state of affairs is not going to be very great, the presence of Division Cuba notwithstanding. It would be hard for the Kremlin to say how likely a US-led revolution in Mexico would be, or whether such a revolution would succeed. However, to deeply conservative and paranoid people, the possibility of a pro-US revolution or coup in Mexico would be real. This would give the US a significant boost during the recovery stage, if access to oil means anything. Better by far to use the missiles already available to knock out the Mexican oil, then blame the US. Set the neighbors against each other. Succeed where the Germans failed.

Provided one can buy off on a Soviet strike on Mexico’s refineries, things get worse in Mexico very quickly for the dark-skinned Mexicans. We should bear in mind that for all the US is racist, Mexico is much worse. Mayans and other dark-skinned Mexicans who clearly have a good deal of Aztec, Mixtec, or other non-European blood are second-class citizens. The Zapatistas of the Yucatan Peninsula didn’t appear out of nowhere. The ruling elites are going to use the assets of the state for their purposes, whether Mexico’s refineries are nuked by the US or the USSR or not nuked at all. The disruption of foreign trade will have an enormous impact on Mexico’s economy, again regardless of the situation with the refineries.

Once the nukes start flying, I believe Mexico will go to full mobilization. Who knows how far such a thing will go? One never knows what will cause those unwashed mestizos to try to grab a slice of the pie, so better to have the Army mobilized during the nuclear exchange than not. Stockpiling supplies (like fuel) can begin during this period. After all, Mexico must have some sort of contingency planning. Not having nukes doesn’t mean immunity from nukes.

Once Mexico’s refineries are hit, the ruling elites will try to keep everything for themselves. The triage plan in post-Exchange America will look benign by comparison. Better for the dark-skinned types to die off and leave Mexico for the Europeans. Thus the flood of refugees across the US-Mexico border. The ruling party is glad to be rid of the refugees; massacres in the US are of interest only if they can be used to sucker the starving Indians and Indian-heavy mestizos into starving to death with patriotic fervor.

As a consequence of all of the above factors taken together, millions of Mexicans have a high degree of motivation to take their chances across the border. They might be screwed in America, but they’re screwed for sure at home. The Army is already mobilized as of 01/01/98. Supplies (food and fuel) have been stockpiled ahead of time, although they were originally stockpiled to help the Army maintain internal order. The Mexican elites decide to invade the US to kill two birds with one stone: revenge against the US while the window is open and the unification of public opinion behind the state.

Yes, I’m painting a pretty grim picture of the national leadership of Mexico. It’s pretty grim today. It was worse twelve years ago when the same party had enjoyed control virtually since the Mexican Civil War (which killed ten million Mexicans, I might add). One doesn’t need to dig very far to discover the intensity of race consciousness in Mexico. The dark-skinned Mexicans, who presumably have the least European blood, are at the bottom of the heap. To one degree or another, it’s that way across Latin America. Ugly, but true.

People are free to do with my interpretation of events as they see fit.

Webstral
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