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Originally Posted by Raellus
My biggest worry is what Putin's response will be. There's been saber-rattling before the transfers were even confirmed. He may try something desperate before the modern Western MBTs arrive on the battlefield. This could lead to the escalation the German government was worried about. We shall see.
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Word has it that the past couple of days have seen increased levels of combat, particularly in the south near Donetsk and Zaporizhia. ISW at least perceives these assaults as spoiling attacks, presumably in preparation for a large increase of Russian troop numbers along the Svatove direction that they believe precludes a looming Russian offensive.
While it makes sense from a domestic propaganda perspective for Russia to try to reclaim the lost territory near Kharkiv, I can't help but wonder how much metal they still have available to try such a large offensive.
To your point Rae, I also wonder if this is Russia realizing that with western tanks inbound, their time to make big moves may be coming to an end. While a couple of battalions of western tanks won't win the war on its own or anything, it would be enough to put the war's initiative back into Ukraine's hands. And as we saw previously with HIMARs transfers, these MBT offerings from the west may be just the beginning. The floodgates are opening, and I'm not sure I see a path back for Russia, despite their manpower advantage.