I don't see a way Russia "wins" without resorting to nukes.
At this point, I think Russia being able to hold onto Crimea and the Donbass is suspect. They already lost the best of their mechanized forces, burned through most of their PGMs, and don't have the industrial capacity to re-generate their forces. Having to import drones from Iran and artillery shells from North Korea is a *really bad sign*. This would be like the US having to purchase ammo from Guatemala.
Yes, they can keep throwing people at the problem, but that just generates more bodies to bury. Hoping your opponent runs out of ammo before you run out of bodies isn't a great military strategy in this day and age.
And Ukraine doesn't need force parity to defeat the Russians. Two heavy mechanized divisions equipped, trained, and supplied to Western standards is going to be sufficient to route a bunch of paroled convicts and old conscripts with 1 or 2 days of training, no food, and suspect leadership.
And part of me can't shake the feeling that Poland is itching to get it on with Russia. I highly suspect that if it looked like Ukraine was going to fall now, that Poland would intervene. And then it gets real sporty.
The $64,000 question is whether or not China makes a military play for Taiwan (which, I don't think they will do without also getting North Korea to attack South Korea). That's the only non-nuclear wildcard that might give Putin some daylight.
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