I know this is an old thread, but...
I had deep reservations about a successful Mexican invasion of the U.S. Southwest, having bought Red Star/Lone Star as a kid when it first came out in '86 or '87 and being a Texas native. About 15 years later I even traded some emails with Loren K. Wiseman on the subject.
I mean, the 49th Armored Div by itself could probably reduce the Mexican army to giblets by itself.
These days, I'm a little more receptive to the idea.
1. The Mexicans don't invade until June of 1998. By this time, the post-attack "recovery" has begun to fail, cities were starting to starve as the government started routing food to critical areas, and letting the rest twist on the vine.
2. Federal Emergency Plan-D (and a slew of related classified Executive Orders) are pretty draconian. Imagine the government coming, taking everything you own, kicking you out of your house (or moving in 5 additional families), drafting you into a labor battalion - and if you refuse, you don't get to eat (the food they confiscated from you), or they shoot you. In a lot areas, especially rural or semi-rural that weren't actually starving, the government coming in to take everyone's stuff probably isn't that popular.
3. The units the US has in reserve, for the most part, aren't that good. Most are training divisions hastily mobilized, probably are far from full strength, suffer from high desertion rates, and are likely less well equipped and trained than first echelon Mexican forces (but probably on par with 2nd echelon forces).
4. These forces, despite operating on US soil, are not operating with secure rear areas. In fact, there is no rear - their presence in Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi and beyond are contested by marauders, and anti-government partisans. It's hard to sustain offensive momentum when your whole logistics network is subject to constant attack.
5. Conversely, the Mexican military is advancing concurrently with a mass population migration from Mexico that largely displaces the native population. And at least initially, this would allow the Mexicans to recruit locally as they advanced with the population to offset combat losses. The US 85th Infantry Division would probably struggle a bit to do the same around Tyler, TX in comparison.
6. Using canon resources like Allegheny Uprising, some of these refugee camps or settlements (domestic and otherwise) can have 40k to 80k people in them. If 5% of those camps are "militia", those by themselves represent a non-insignificant amount of potential combat power and threat. How do you deal with those refugees (many of whom want what your military has - food, fuel, weapons) while simultaneously dealing with the Mexican army and the Soviet Division Cuba?
7. Net net, you have an American population that's largely hostile to your presence trying to eject a foreign army and large population migration that's also hostile to your presence over a supply line that is long and unstable (it's the same distance from Colorado Springs to Brownsville, TX as it is from Berlin to Moscow), and you're conducting your counter offensive during the most acute phase of the post-attack collapse (Autumn 1998 through mid-1999).
One angle that is hard to rationalize though is that the Soviets nuke Mexican refineries about a month after hitting the US, and a few months later...the Mexicans ally with the Soviets to invade the US (although, I guess technically you could argue the Mexicans don't know who actually nuked them).
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