Those are all good points, Heffe. To play devil's advocate here, I would argue that what you've identified actually gives China reasons to attempt reunification by force right now, while the West overextends itself in Ukraine.
The US and its allies are funneling much of their defense production into arming Ukraine, and rebuilding their own rather moribund conventional militaries after decades of "peace dividend" draw-downs. Quite simply, the US and its allies can't supply both Ukraine and Taiwan simultaneously. As I mentioned up-thread (including links to the 60 Minutes and Atlantic stories referenced earlier), Taiwan has still not received shipments of American weapons (IIRC, these included Javelin ATGMs and Stinger MANPADS) they ordered and paid for before the Russian invasion of Ukraine just over a year ago. Why? Because those weapons were sent to Ukraine instead. Taiwan's not getting stronger, ATM. Now would be the time to strike.
That said, perhaps the above is a strong argument for why China won't invade Taiwan anytime soon (or in 2025). If they were going to do it, around about April of 2022, or since, would have been the time to do it- when the West's eyes and pocketbooks were focused squarely on a hard-pressed Ukraine. To play devil's advocate, perhaps the PRC is waiting until the West sends even more military hardware to Ukraine to make its move. I imagine Beijing far prefers Javelins, HIMARS, and possibly even F-16s going to Ukraine rather than to Taiwan.
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Last edited by Raellus; 03-01-2023 at 04:33 PM.
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