Firstly, yes, only 5,000 of the 1996 merchant fleet is of Russian or Polish registry.
But how many of the 81,000 remaining are available solely for the USA to use?
There's a LOT of countries in the world with a merchant fleet and you can bet they're not about to let another country just TAKE them! Even US flagged privately owned shipping isn't necessarily going to be made available to the US government and military. Even less of these ships will be found near US controlled areas once they start being requisitioned!
There's absolutely no need for the Soviets to destroy even a small percentage of the world fleet, just those few which are US controlled. And of course that doesn't even take into account the psychological effects on privately owned shipping - what captain, let alone the company which owns the ships, is likely to sail into a war zone? Standard insurance stops the moment a ship enters into a combat area, and you can bet that war coverage isn't going to be cheap!
Therefore, the number of Soviet ships, subs, planes, missiles, etc isn't all that important - as long as they can make a significant dent anyway.
Since you bring up WWII and the U-boats, Britian was almost brought to it's knees with just that relatively "small" amount of damage inflicted upon it. I believe surrender was just a matter of weeks, if not days away at one point.
In T2K it's not just one country being supported by shipping, but virtually all of western Europe. The demands are therefore so much greater as are the effects of lossing just a handful of freighters.
As a more modern example, take a look at the Falklands war in the early 80's. The loss of one supply ship, the Atlantic Conveyor I believe it was called, almost crippled the British effort. For most of the war they had just one Chinook helicopter and hundreds if not thousands of tonnes of vital war material was lost to the sea. Yes the British still won, but it was MUCH harder than it would have been otherwise.
Yes, it's possible, even probable that more than nine warships still exist, but refering back to canon material, it states by 2001, the navy "effectively ceased to exist".
It's probable that the Persian Gulf fleet still existed in 2001, perhaps, as I've previously indicated less a ship or two, but elsewhere in the world the navy may amount to nothing more than a badly damaged corvette, minesweeper, or LST or two. Once again we refer to canon in that the last major fleet was shattered even BEFORE nukes were used in China.
How could this happen we ask? Does it really matter about the specifics? The Soviets could have been more effective than expected, or key crewmembers aboard each ship were KGB sleepers, or perhaps it was just mishandling of the ships in battle, or even navigational errors. Regardless, a world with more than a handful of warships on either side of the war is a totally different world to that of Twilight:2000.
The Corpus Christi is a good example of the situation. Yes there may well be a number of crew still alive, but how many could be found in the short period of time available before sailing, and even if they were found, how many a) would be willing to embark on such a potentially dangerous mission in a ship which is barely seaworthy, and b) could they even be brought to port in time? Remember transportation networks of any sort are a distant memory - little more than a dream three years after the nukes.
I may be wrong, but it is my belief that resupply effectively ceased sometime in 1998, except for CIVGOVs support in the Balkans. Therefore, the return of European forces is likely to create a drain on available resources rather than easing the burden. At least in Europe units were effectively responsible for feeding themselves.
As far as I am aware, no heavy equipment, not even light vehicles were returned from Europe as far as Canon goes. Those vehicles in the US where the troops disembarked are likely to be long gone, taken by looters, damaged by EMP, engines seized, stripped of parts (specifically lubricants and fuel) or generally in very poor condition. The sudden influx of tens of thousands of troops, even spread across the eastern seaboard, is likely to tax to the limit the resources still remaining, especially when one considers that it's this very area that's contributed greatest to the last stages of the war.
Some preperations for receiving the troops is sure to have been made, but this would probably only consist of stripping the land bare for a hundred miles or so. Very little production of extra equipment, and especially food, would be possible.
It is highly likely that many returning troops would simply be discharged, pointed westward and given a shove. Only the specialists would be retained.
Horses are also likely to be in short supply (see the earlier threads on this topic to see why).
Although canon states 52% casualties, it is probable that a large percentage of these would be city dwellers. After the nukes, those cities not glowing craters would be greatly effected by EMP, lack of electricity and fuel oil, heating and cooking gas, etc. Food distribution networks would fall apart within days, riots empty the shops in hours and medical facilities swamped.
Out in the countryside survival is more likely, especially in areas where homes produced their own food, etc.
Cities also hold the greatest concentration of skilled labour. It's cities where most of the vitally needed skill sets can be found - engineers, doctors, scientists, even mechanics (somebodies got to change the oil for all those soft city slickers).
So, while 52% might be a reasonable figure nationally, chances are that amongst these skilled people, the casualty rate might be as high, or even greater than 90%.
Twilight:2000 is a game. It's set on the premise of global catastrophy. It may not be an accurate representation of what would truely have happened should Germany have invaded Poland, etc, but it's a damn good RPG setting. We shouldn't be trying to pull it apart, but rather be working to justify why it is the way it is.
