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Originally Posted by Raellus
I don't buy the idea of an air corridor to W. Berlin remaining open after fighting kicks off between the Bundeswehr and the GoSFiG. The fog-of-war would be so thick, you could cut it with a knife, and "accidents" would be unavoidable- inevitable even. Both sides would know this. I imagine W. Berlin would be placed in a de-facto stage of siege as soon as Bundeswehr forces cross the border into the DDR. Sure, the Soviet Union wouldn't be keen on provoking the rest of NATO into joining the fight, but I just don't see them being willing to allow air traffic from the West unimpeded access to East German territory. The Soviets would be too rattled- paranoia isn't paranoia when the fear is substantiated- by the clear and present danger of losing its western buffer to an aggressive, potentially united Germany (1941, anyone?). Sure, they'd warn off the West in the most unambiguous of terms and, unlike 1948, I think they'd back their threats with deadly force (the Soviets didn't have an operational nuclear deterrent in '48; in '96, they would, and it would be massive). The Stavka would remember Stalin's mistake of writing off reports that Barbarossa was underway, and instructing border troops not to fight back in fear of "provoking" Hitler. I think a hard-line, military backed Politburo would draw a line in the sand, and prepare for the worst. With a war well underway in the Far East and a war flaring up in central Europe, the Soviets would not be willing to show weakness.
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I agree somewhat with you. The Politburo is backed into a corner, but it is one of their own making..and they need to find a way out. I am sure there was already multiple feelers sent out to semi-sympathetic Western nations (Italy and Greece come to mind) to mediate a end to the fighting in China before the '96 offensive. By the time October 1996 rolls around, the Soviets are in a corner. But they aren't dumb.
One, they cannot simply nuke somebody into compliance, NATO has the means to retaliate, swiftly, and it would paradoxically, demonstrate they are now conventionally speaking, weak on the ground.
Two, as much as some elements in the Politburo want to show the West that the Bear still has his claws, there are others who want to get the hell off the tiger they now find themselves on. Thus, a flurry of contradictory orders are going to come out of the Defense Council from Moscow..blockade Berlin, don't blockade Berlin..hell GSFG might get ten different orders on that in a day, and now that it's short an entire Combined Arms Army, as well as significant air assets? Might not be the time to pick a fight with NATO. I don't think the Soviets would go much further than '48 for that reason. Might there be an incident or two? Yes. But they are going to be very careful about that. Suppose the Soviets shoot down an American C-141 leaving Templehof with American military dependents on board because they wanted to make a point? That will not go over well, and the Soviets strike me as pragmatists. Don't buy more trouble when you have enough already is probably the predominant thinking in the Kremlin.
Three, I would state 3 is the most likely thing. It would make the most sense and explains how the Stasi are "in" on the coup. Now, granted, the West Germans and the East German army do not trust them at all, and I am sure more than a few are later liquidated, but that said, the fact remains..the Stasi was ever present in East Germany, for the East German army to have simply remained in barracks when the Bundeswehr came calling? That suggests preparation and coordination of some sort, at the highest levels for it to be army-wide. No way the Stasi would not get wind of that. Unless somebody in the Stasi buried it.
Four, considering the plans and responsibility for reducing West Berlin in case of war was primarily a job for the East Germans, and the East Germans have now thrown in their lot with the enemy, where are the Soviets going to get the troops to throw up a proper cordon around West Berlin? The Soviets need every soldier they have to hold off the Bundeswehr. Maybe when the Poles and Czechs show up, they can take that responsibility, but that will take time.