I think I posted the link to a relevant article in another thread (can't remember which, though), but at least a few top minds think that environmental stressors will lead to competition for resources which, in turn, will lead to armed conflicts around the world. All things considered, it seems so highly plausible that it is probable. The article I mentioned made some persuasive claims that the current conflict in the Levant was brought about by such factors. I'll try to find it and repost it here.
I voted for Environmental Disaster -> Nuclear Armageddon
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