Indeed you are correct. I've included Indonesia building roads in West Papua during the build up to their offensive for just that reason, with their cover story being they're simply improving civilian infrastructure prior to moving a few hundred thousand citizens from the overpopulated areas to the west.
Of course they can't actually cross the border during this phase, and there's only so much you can do in the proceeding year, especially if you're trying to conceal the fact all the major routes lead towards PNG...
By itself it's not enough to trigger a military response, or even a diplomatic one, but it is sufficient to alert defence planners to the increased probability of conflict and therefore improve Anzac preparedness by drawing in personnel from low priority offshore missions and boost overall manpower (basically begin to flesh out the three Australian Divisions from their peacetime levels of absolutely abysmal).
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If it moves, shoot it, if not push it, if it still doesn't move, use explosives.
Nothing happens in isolation - it's called "the butterfly effect"
Mors ante pudorem
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