A couple of points
New York (and the North East in general) are more urbanized than Kentucky and Tennessee. I can see their death rate being HIGHER than 95%.
Recovery in the "canon" KFS may be better than you are assuming. They have had a fairly stable political and economic system for over a century and their medical/education system is good enough to train Emdees. I suspect that the population would be nearer 2 million than the approximately 1 million that you show for Kentucky/Tennessee
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