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Old 11-17-2018, 06:32 AM
Desert Mariner Desert Mariner is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2018
Location: Connecticut
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dragoon500ly View Post
Good points

I went with the 95% die off as per canon. But I do agree that areas such as New York, Maryland and Pennsylvania would probably suffer much higher numbers, but as of yet, I cannot determine just how high to go, would a couple of more percentage points work?
My thought on this is to subtract the population of the major metro areas from the state total and then start your die-off/growth computations.

Based on the top 100 populace cities in the 2000 census this would reduce the base populations as follows:

State / Original Base / New Base
NY / 18,976,457 / 10,259,672
PA / 12,281,054 / 10,428,941
KY / 4,041,769 / 3,525,026
VA / 7,078,515 / 6,021,881

What formula do you use for growth, I haven't been able to duplicate your numbers? I have an Excel sheet (more than willing to post this if I can arrive at a growth calculation that everyone agrees upon) that allows for input of Die-off, Growth Rate and Time and then computes all of the states but I'm not hitting your figures with either population growth formula I'm familiar with:

Projected Pop = Pt
Beginning Pop = P0
Growth Rate = R
Time = T
e = 2.71828 (base of natural logarithms)

Formula 1 -- Pt = P0 * (1+R)to power of T
Formula 2 -- Pt = P0 * (e)to power of (R*T)

Last edited by Desert Mariner; 11-17-2018 at 07:35 AM. Reason: Corrected formula 1 to read (1+R) vice (1*R)
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